New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New York Jets (+3) over CLEVELAND

It looks like the Browns will be favored by a field goal for the first time in 40 games, a streak going all the way back to week 12 of 2015. While Cleveland is certainly much improved and could easily be 2-0 right now (instead of 0-1-1), we prefer to take the points. We went against New York last week with a Best Bet win on Miami but the Jets actually played better than expected in that 12-20 loss. Through two games New York has outgained their opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.0 yppl while rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has completed 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 7.5 yards per pass play.

Cleveland’s offense has struggled so far (just 4.5 yppl) but the Browns’ defense, which was actually pretty solid last season on a yards per play allowed basis, yielded just 5.4 yppl to very good offensive teams Pittsburgh and New Orleans. The Browns will be a good test for Darnold, who could be facing real pressure this week with a banged up offensive line. The Jets had a below-average offensive line coming into the season and now they will potentially be without LG James Carpenter. Cleveland DT Larry Ogunjobi has recorded 3 sacks already this season, 2nd among interior defensive linemen, and should exploit backup left guard Dakota Dozier while Myles Garrett must be dealt with on the edge. The Jets may be forced into playing a blocking tight end to protect Sam Darnold’s blind side.

While I commend Cleveland on how well they’ve played so far against two good teams, the Browns are still finding improbable ways to not win games and our ratings favor them by just 2 points in this game. This will be New York’s 3rd game in 11 days and they may show signs of fatigue. In fact, the previous 12 teams that have been in that scheduling situation in the past 39 years are just 3-9 ATS, including 1-5 ATS on the road. While the Jets’ demanding schedule is a concern, I will still lean with New York at +3 points or more based on a 10-50-2 ATS week 3 situation that applies to Cleveland.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Browns

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.5 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 54.2% 44.3%
Sack Rate 7.8% 7.4%
Int Rate 4.8% 4.8%
Deep Pass Rate 21.7% 10.1%
Big Pass Yards 47.8% 33.4%
NYPP 7.5 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 25.0
RB YPR 3.2 2.7
Stuff Rate 23.1% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 29.4% 45.2%
Big Rush Yards 58.7% 23.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.1 3.3

Game

All Snaps 64.5 64.5
Early Down Succ 46.7% 53.4%
Succ Rate 41.0% 45.9%
Big Yards Rate 52.7% 37.0%
Yards Per Play 5.6 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 25.9
Run Ratio 47.7% 39.6%
Starting Field Pos 32.4 28.7
Game Control 1.4 -1.4

Points 30.0 18.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	48 – 17 W	11.9	65.2% / 44.2%	8.7% / 0.0%	4.8% / 9.6%	7.8 / 5.8	32.6% / 37.5%	9.3% / 25.0%	4.0 / 2.5	66 / 68	53.8% / 51.0%	43.9% / 42.6%	55.1% / 37.9%	5.4 / 5.0	1.5% / 0.0%	65.2% / 23.5%	40.7 / 23.0
2	MIA	12 – 20 L	-9.2	43.2% / 44.4%	6.8% / 14.8%	4.9% / 0.0%	7.3 / 4.5	26.3% / 52.9%	36.8% / 26.5%	2.2 / 4.1	63 / 61	39.6% / 55.8%	38.1% / 49.2%	50.3% / 36.2%	5.7 / 4.3	1.6% / 3.3%	30.2% / 55.7%	24.1 / 34.4

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	21 – 21 T	-6.0	21.7% / 40.0%	15.2% / 8.9%	2.6% / 7.3%	3.3 / 7.0	39.5% / 44.4%	34.2% / 19.4%	4.7 / 4.4	84 / 81	30.8% / 42.2%	29.8% / 42.0%	64.5% / 48.4%	3.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.7%	45.2% / 44.4%	34.4 / 23.9
2	@NO	18 – 21 L	2.8	48.5% / 63.2%	9.1% / 7.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.6	33.3% / 37.5%	14.8% / 25.0%	3.4 / 2.6	60 / 62	43.5% / 60.4%	41.7% / 53.2%	43.4% / 30.8%	5.5 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	45.0% / 38.7%	28.4 / 35.0

New York Jets @

Cleveland Browns

Thu, Sep 20

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis