New York Jets
@ 
Chicago Bears
Game Analysis
CHICAGO (-3.5) vs NY Jets
I would Lean with Chicago at -3 -115 or better
The Bears overcame the absence of quarterback Caleb Williams and prevailed 27-7 over a struggling Eagles team last Monday night with veteran 3rd-string quarterback Case Keenum at the helm of the offense. Williams’ value is solely in his running/scrambling, as his career 60.5% completion rate (58.7% under Ben Johnson) is well below average, as is his -2.7% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Keenum completed 71% of his passes against a good defense last week with a +2.8% CPOE and my adjustment for Williams is just the 2.0 points per game that his running provides (versus the negative run EPA of Keenum). It’s possible that #2 QB Tyson Bagent gets the start (Johnson is not tipping his hand) but how can you not start Keenum here after last week’s performance?
The Bears’ defense played well last week, and their advanced metrics are better than average (despite allowing 6.1 yards per play), as they rate at 1.8 points per game better than average. However, they’ve also faced weak offensive teams and had weather conditions that favor the defenses – two factors that combine to make it 4.1 points per game easier than average for their defense. Chicago has actually been 2.3 points per game worse than average defensively when taking weather and opposing offenses into account and I rate that unit at 1.5 points worse than average.
The Jets should move the ball at a decent rate, as Geno Smith is back to being one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league after a disastrous season behind a terrible offensive line in Vegas. The Jets have posted average offense numbers, but they’ve faced a trio of below average defenses in Tennessee, Green Bay, and Detroit.
The Jets’ defense has been average so far this season, but I still rate the Bears as 1.0 points better than average offensively even without Williams.
The market is adjusting more for Williams being out than I am, which is why my ratings favor the Bears by 4.7 points (with 43.8 total points). I’d Lean with Chicago if the line goes back down to -3.