Game Analysis

Lean – BUFFALO (-7) over NY Jets

· Buffalo’s offense had a league-high 55.6% success rate in week 10 but they decided to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey because Sean McDermott needed a scapegoat. The Bills lost -19.4 expected points from turnovers in the loss to the Broncos, but I do not expect the interceptions and fumbles to continue.

· Josh Allen’s 2.4% PFF turnover-worthy play rate is the lowest of his career but he leads the NFL with 11 interceptions.

· Buffalo is clearly desperate based on the decision to fire the coordinator of one of the three offenses in the league averaging 6 yppl.

· The Bills are doing everything they can to save their season. Josh Allen is averaging 3 designed rushes per game in the last four weeks compared to 1.3 designed rushes per game in the first 6 games.

· New York’s defense has a 44.6% pressure rate (2nd) and they will be tested by Buffalo’s offensive line that ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are both among the 7 qualifying cornerbacks conceding less than 0.70 yards per cover snap and the Jets cornerbacks conceded only 1.8 yards of separation on Davante Adams’ targets last week. Gardner and Reed will similarly limit Bills WR All-Pro Stefon Diggs, who is gaining 2.37 yards per route run (11th).

· Buffalo RB James Cook is averaging 0.11 EPA/target (8th) but he will not have room on screens as New York’s defense is conceding a 34% pass success rate to running backs (4th).

· The Jets’ only true weakness on defense is allowing a 54% success rate to tight ends and they could struggle versus Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, whose 67% success rate ranks 2nd.

· Zach Wilson has not had a game this year with a positive EPA, and I do not think he will be positive this week.

· Wilson can’t get explosive passes when the defense drops seven or more into coverage. Wilson’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 78% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (30th). Buffalo’s defense has a 75.1% standard pass rush rate (8th-highest).

· Bills edge defender Greg Rousseau ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he could line up across from backup RT Max Mitchell if Duane Brown does not suit up.

· New York G Laken Tomlinson ranks 48th in pass blocking efficiency out of 49 qualifying guards and he will struggle across from interior defender Ed Oliver, who leads all defensive tackles with a 17% pressure rate.

· Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 0.19 EPA/target (6th) and he will be in a favorable matchup versus a Buffalo defense surrendering a league-high 53% pass success rate to running backs.

· Our model favors the Bills by 7.4 points, with a predicted total of 38.9 points, and Buffalo applies to a 96-39-5 ATS division home revenge situation that is 19-3 ATS when applying to favorites of 7 points or more.