New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+17) over BALTIMORE

Lamar Jackson is averaging 0.25 broken tackles per attempt, the fourth best rate of any player, and 64.4% of his rushing yards have been on called quarterback runs. Jackson is projected to suit up despite a quadriceps injury but the Ravens are likely to play it more conservative with the MVP front runner in a game that they should win without his running. Baltimore is on pace to be the first team since 1977 to average over 200 rushing yards per game but will likely take a step back this week against the Jets 6th-rated rush defense with Jackson unlikely to get many designed carries due to his injury. Jackson’s blindside protector left tackle Ronnie Stanley has surrendered a league-low 6 pressures this season but will miss this game and is worth about a point according to our metrics. Tight end Mark Andrews is gaining 2.81 yards per route run (2nd) but he is banged-up as well and likely won’t be able to fully take advantage of the absence of Jets’ Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams. Marquise Brown is averaging 2.05 yards per route run (18th) but the wide receiver could by contained by fellow rookie Blessuan Austin, who is conceding just 0.78 yards per cover snap since his week 10 debut.

The Ravens are the only team in the NFL blitzing on more than half of plays, which spells disaster for Sam Darnold and his banged-up offensive line. Darnold gains just 5.2 yards per pass play in his career versus the blitz, compared to 6.3 yards per pass play against a standard pass rush. Additionally, Darnold has not shown the ability to succeed in hostile territory, averaging only 5.3 yards per pass play on the road compared to 6.6 yards per pass play at home.

Last Thursday’s Bears-Cowboys game was the highest-rated Thursday night game of the season on FOX and this week has the potential to be the least-watchable NFL game of 2019. Probable blowout? Check. Injuries to key players on both sides? Check. Typical short week sloppiness? Likely. The Ravens probably won’t fully unleash an injured Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold is prime for another nightmare outing on the road versus a blitz-heavy defense. However, Our model favors Baltimore by only 13.3-points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points, and this line has moved up a few points from where it started – so the value is certainly on the side of the Jets.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Ravens

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.5 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 40.1% 45.1%
Sack Rate 10.0% 5.6%
Int Rate 3.6% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 14.9%
Big Pass Yards 35.7% 38.5%
NYPP 5.5 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 23.2 26.0
RB YPR 3.2 2.8
Stuff Rate 24.9% 33.8%
Succ Rush Plays 40.1% 34.9%
Big Rush Yards 25.8% 35.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.0

Game

All Snaps 59.6 65.5
Early Down Succ 43.8% 41.8%
Succ Rate 39.6% 40.9%
Big Yards Rate 34.4% 39.1%
Yards Per Play 4.5 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.6
Run Ratio 38.8% 39.5%
Starting Field Pos 26.1 31.9
Game Control -2.8 2.8

Points 17.4 23.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	16 – 17 L	7.1	42.2% / 55.3%	8.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	3.4 / 6.4	52.4% / 48.0%	33.3% / 20.0%	3.2 / 5.1	66 / 63	46.8% / 54.9%	45.5% / 52.4%	9.9% / 50.0%	3.4 / 5.9	1.5% / 3.2%	31.8% / 39.7%	28.4 / 22.9
2	CLE	3 – 23 L	-12.5	25.7% / 34.2%	11.4% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.8 / 8.0	41.7% / 28.6%	37.5% / 38.1%	3.9 / 3.3	59 / 59	39.5% / 33.3%	32.2% / 32.2%	42.4% / 74.4%	4.4 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.7% / 35.6%	18.0 / 33.6
3	@NE	14 – 30 L	-17.6	22.2% / 54.3%	18.5% / 2.2%	4.5% / 2.2%	2.6 / 6.8	20.0% / 33.3%	30.0% / 14.8%	1.8 / 2.5	47 / 73	29.4% / 50.0%	21.3% / 46.6%	21.9% / 35.7%	2.2 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.4%	42.6% / 37.0%	18.2 / 40.3
5	@PHI	6 – 31 L	-16.1	25.0% / 43.3%	27.8% / 3.3%	7.7% / 0.0%	1.7 / 6.0	42.1% / 34.5%	26.3% / 34.5%	3.5 / 2.9	55 / 59	35.0% / 42.9%	30.9% / 39.0%	25.0% / 44.2%	2.3 / 4.5	1.8% / 1.7%	34.5% / 49.2%	27.1 / 35.2
6	DAL	24 – 22 W	7.9	55.9% / 56.1%	5.9% / 2.4%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.6	30.0% / 47.1%	10.0% / 23.5%	2.8 / 3.8	54 / 75	54.8% / 50.9%	46.3% / 52.0%	56.8% / 22.1%	7.1 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.3%	25.3 / 26.7
7	NE	0 – 33 L	-19.6	18.2% / 48.9%	3.0% / 0.0%	12.5% / 2.2%	2.2 / 5.5	50.0% / 38.2%	20.0% / 47.1%	4.1 / 2.2	53 / 79	35.0% / 45.0%	30.2% / 44.3%	32.5% / 38.1%	2.9 / 4.1	3.8% / 0.0%	37.7% / 43.0%	24.3 / 37.4
8	@JAC	15 – 29 L	-8.5	44.7% / 50.0%	21.1% / 5.6%	10.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.7	46.7% / 17.6%	26.7% / 44.1%	3.1 / 3.3	53 / 70	51.2% / 32.0%	45.3% / 34.3%	39.0% / 55.3%	4.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.4%	28.3% / 48.6%	26.5 / 36.9
9	@MIA	18 – 26 L	-4.5	50.0% / 50.0%	7.1% / 10.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 6.7	42.9% / 33.3%	23.8% / 37.5%	4.0 / 2.1	63 / 64	50.0% / 44.0%	47.6% / 43.8%	26.8% / 23.4%	5.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 37.5%	30.7 / 31.2
10	NYG	34 – 27 W	4.1	46.9% / 32.6%	6.3% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.6	27.6% / 17.6%	31.0% / 64.7%	2.6 / 1.4	61 / 63	39.1% / 20.9%	37.7% / 28.6%	44.9% / 58.4%	4.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	47.5% / 27.0%	29.7 / 25.9
11	@WAS	34 – 17 W	14.5	51.5% / 34.1%	6.1% / 14.6%	3.2% / 2.9%	8.6 / 4.2	45.5% / 45.0%	24.2% / 35.0%	3.5 / 2.7	66 / 61	51.0% / 38.6%	48.5% / 37.7%	43.0% / 57.8%	6.1 / 3.7	1.5% / 0.0%	50.0% / 32.8%	35.3 / 34.6
12	OAK	34 – 3 W	14.7	56.7% / 34.3%	3.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	10.4 / 4.0	43.3% / 31.8%	26.7% / 36.4%	2.9 / 3.1	60 / 57	53.2% / 35.0%	50.0% / 33.3%	60.3% / 12.5%	6.7 / 3.6	1.7% / 1.8%	50.0% / 38.6%	27.6 / 26.5
13	@CIN	6 – 22 L	-7.8	36.5% / 44.7%	7.7% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.0 / 6.1	41.2% / 36.0%	11.8% / 24.0%	3.6 / 1.8	69 / 63	38.8% / 45.7%	37.7% / 41.3%	14.8% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	24.6% / 39.7%	17.8 / 36.1
14	MIA	22 – 21 W	2.4	45.9% / 48.7%	2.7% / 5.1%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.1 / 6.2	37.5% / 42.3%	21.9% / 19.2%	3.5 / 4.7	69 / 65	45.3% / 50.0%	42.0% / 46.2%	30.2% / 36.2%	5.4 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.4% / 40.0%	30.0 / 27.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	59 – 10 W	32.5	74.1% / 37.1%	3.7% / 8.6%	0.0% / 6.3%	14.0 / 5.1	58.7% / 33.3%	13.0% / 50.0%	5.8 / 1.8	73 / 47	65.5% / 37.8%	64.4% / 36.2%	66.7% / 48.5%	8.8 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.1%	63.0% / 25.5%	31.6 / 22.6
2	ARI	23 – 17 W	6.7	46.2% / 44.2%	5.1% / 7.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.7	45.5% / 36.4%	15.2% / 36.4%	5.5 / 1.8	72 / 54	47.3% / 48.8%	45.8% / 42.6%	62.3% / 65.9%	6.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 20.4%	28.7 / 20.0
3	@KC	28 – 33 L	-7.1	34.8% / 57.9%	6.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 9.6	71.9% / 46.2%	6.3% / 26.9%	6.3 / 5.4	78 / 64	50.8% / 55.8%	50.0% / 53.1%	37.6% / 49.5%	5.8 / 7.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 40.6%	26.0 / 25.5
4	CLE	25 – 40 L	-7.4	52.6% / 50.0%	10.5% / 3.1%	5.9% / 3.2%	5.8 / 10.5	58.6% / 51.7%	13.8% / 24.1%	6.0 / 6.7	67 / 61	59.3% / 52.2%	55.2% / 50.8%	39.7% / 55.3%	5.9 / 8.7	1.5% / 0.0%	43.3% / 47.5%	27.8 / 26.2
5	@PIT	26 – 23 W	2.9	33.3% / 40.6%	15.2% / 3.1%	10.7% / 3.2%	4.2 / 6.0	55.0% / 52.6%	25.0% / 15.8%	3.5 / 4.1	73 / 51	45.6% / 48.8%	45.2% / 45.1%	22.0% / 42.8%	3.8 / 5.3	0.0% / 2.0%	54.8% / 37.3%	33.3 / 32.7
6	CIN	23 – 17 W	7.4	55.9% / 43.9%	2.9% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 5.3	58.1% / 21.4%	18.6% / 42.9%	6.3 / 2.4	77 / 55	59.3% / 36.4%	57.1% / 38.2%	45.1% / 44.8%	6.5 / 4.5	1.3% / 0.0%	55.8% / 25.5%	25.5 / 27.3
7	@SEA	30 – 16 W	2.9	28.6% / 38.1%	4.8% / 2.4%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.7 / 5.7	42.9% / 57.7%	14.3% / 26.9%	5.7 / 4.1	56 / 68	37.5% / 41.2%	37.5% / 45.6%	62.1% / 49.0%	6.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	62.5% / 38.2%	23.9 / 25.2
9	NE	37 – 20 W	8.4	62.5% / 52.1%	4.2% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	6.8 / 5.6	48.8% / 64.7%	17.1% / 11.8%	5.1 / 4.4	65 / 65	56.9% / 59.6%	53.8% / 55.4%	39.5% / 19.0%	5.7 / 5.3	3.1% / 1.5%	63.1% / 26.2%	20.0 / 34.7
10	@CIN	49 – 13 W	22.7	69.6% / 40.6%	4.3% / 6.3%	4.5% / 3.3%	10.6 / 4.7	65.2% / 62.5%	17.4% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.9	46 / 72	70.3% / 56.6%	67.4% / 52.8%	46.4% / 29.6%	8.2 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.8%	50.0% / 55.6%	31.1 / 31.4
11	HOU	41 – 7 W	14.8	60.7% / 40.5%	3.6% / 18.9%	0.0% / 3.3%	8.1 / 3.0	47.2% / 45.0%	16.7% / 15.0%	7.3 / 6.1	64 / 57	55.8% / 48.8%	53.1% / 42.1%	52.1% / 37.9%	7.7 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	56.3% / 35.1%	36.2 / 28.2
12	@LA	45 – 6 W	21.6	57.7% / 46.2%	11.5% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.5 / 5.1	56.3% / 22.2%	4.2% / 33.3%	5.9 / 2.4	74 / 48	55.6% / 45.9%	56.8% / 41.7%	52.7% / 44.8%	6.5 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	64.9% / 18.8%	30.6 / 24.1
13	SF	20 – 17 W	0.3	37.5% / 43.5%	4.2% / 8.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.8	60.5% / 41.4%	10.5% / 17.2%	4.7 / 6.0	62 / 52	53.1% / 44.7%	51.6% / 42.3%	35.7% / 53.2%	4.6 / 6.4	1.6% / 1.9%	61.3% / 55.8%	33.1 / 22.9
14	@BUF	24 – 17 W	6.7	46.2% / 20.0%	3.8% / 13.3%	4.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 2.3	54.5% / 43.5%	12.1% / 26.1%	3.6 / 4.5	59 / 68	58.7% / 30.0%	50.8% / 27.9%	33.9% / 54.1%	4.4 / 3.1	0.0% / 1.5%	55.9% / 33.8%	31.6 / 26.4

New York Jets @

Baltimore Ravens

Thu, Dec 12

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis