Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (-9) vs NY Giants

· The Giants had 411 fewer passing yards than the Cowboys last week, which is the largest differential in the last 13 seasons. You’d think it’s rock bottom, but I don’t foresee a turnaround for New York’s offense.

· Tommy DeVito will likely go down as one of the worst quarterbacks to ever earn multiple starts in the NFL. The undrafted rookie is averaging only 2.9 yppp and he was terrible at Syracuse before being tasked with simply completing short passes and not taking sacks at Illinois, where they had a dominant defense.

· Giants TE Darren Waller was averaging 1.53 yards per route run (8th) before his hamstring injury against the Raiders and New York’s remaining receivers do not have the talent to beat man coverage.

· The Giants’ yards per attempt versus man this season is just 67% of their yards per attempt against zone coverage (30th) and DeVito will have nowhere to go with the ball as Washington’s defense has a 31.3% man coverage rate (7th-highest).

· The Commanders haven’t beaten anyone by double digits this season and their offense could struggle as well in this game.

· New York’s defense is allowing only a 45% success rate to tight ends (4th) and they will limit TE Logan Thomas, who is averaging 0.28 EPA/target (8th).

· Washington C Nick Gates ranks 31st in pass-blocking efficiency out of 32 qualifying centers. Giants’ interior defender Dexter Lawrence leads the NFL with 46 pressures and he had 2 sacks against the Commanders in week 7.

· Our model makes Washington a 7.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 36.1 points.