Game Analysis
SAN FRANCISCO vs New York Giants (-2.5)
It looks like San Francisco fans will have to wait to see new quarterback Jimmy Garapollo as CJ Beathard gets the nod again this week. Beathard has an awful 4.6 yards per pass play average and I don’t expect him to continue as the starter much longer, no matter how complex Kyle Shanahan’s offense is to learn for Garapollo. The lone bright spot in the 49ers offense this season has been the emergence of running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde is 6th in the league in scrimmage yards and 3rd in receptions amongst running backs, providing a nice check-down option for Beathard. However, it could be difficult for Hyde this week against a Giants defenses allowing the 4th least receptions to opposing running backs.
The Giants offense has failed to reach 5.0 yppl in the three games since their top two receivers were injured. Eli Manning is having his worst season since his rookie year gaining just 5.4 yppp. Manning will have a good matchup this week against a San Francisco pass defense ranked 27th in my metrics and just lost good cover safety Jaquiski Tartt (just 6.1 yards per target allowed) to a season-ending broken forearm. The match up favors the Giants but the line has gone up and there is no value here. I’d actually lean with San Francisco is this line gets up to +3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.9%
43.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.7%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.9%
41.8%
-
NYPP
5.3
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.1
31.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.0%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.2%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
68.6
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.6%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
28.4
-
Run Ratio
35.9%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
31.1
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.2
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.5%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
4.4%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.6%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.2%
40.7%
-
NYPP
4.8
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.1
37.2
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.1%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.9%
43.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.3
72.7
-
Early Down Succ
42.9%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.9%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.7
28.9
-
Run Ratio
33.4%
51.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
30.5
-
Game Control
-7.9
7.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DAL |
3 – 19 L |
-9.1 |
48.8% /
48.7% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
23.1% /
54.8% |
7.7% /
19.4% |
2.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
46.2% /
50.9% |
42.6% /
51.4% |
27.8% /
37.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.1% /
44.3% |
16.0 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
DET |
10 – 24 L |
-7.5 |
37.8% /
33.3% |
13.5% /
12.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
38.9% /
43.8% |
27.8% /
34.4% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
55 /
56 |
41.5% /
37.5% |
38.2% /
39.3% |
30.0% /
42.4% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
32.7% /
57.1% |
24.3 /
37.4 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
59.6% /
41.2% |
0.0% /
8.8% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
23.5% /
48.7% |
23.5% /
23.1% |
2.9 /
5.0 |
64 /
73 |
55.8% /
47.3% |
50.0% /
45.2% |
23.4% /
30.4% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
26.6% /
53.4% |
34.6 /
21.5 |
| 4 |
@TB |
23 – 25 L |
-5.2 |
49.0% /
48.7% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
8.3 |
35.7% /
42.3% |
28.6% /
19.2% |
3.3 /
4.3 |
77 /
65 |
44.1% /
56.3% |
44.2% /
46.2% |
27.4% /
57.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
40.0% |
27.7 /
29.9 |
| 5 |
LAC |
22 – 27 L |
2.4 |
34.1% /
36.4% |
12.2% /
0.0% |
2.8% /
2.3% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
72.0% /
31.3% |
12.0% /
21.9% |
6.1 /
3.9 |
66 /
76 |
54.0% /
34.0% |
48.5% /
34.2% |
46.3% /
36.2% |
5.1 /
5.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
42.1% |
28.2 /
29.0 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 10 W |
10.4 |
40.9% /
35.1% |
13.6% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.4 /
6.4 |
18.8% /
44.4% |
40.6% /
11.1% |
4.6 /
2.6 |
54 /
75 |
27.5% /
40.0% |
27.8% /
37.3% |
53.4% /
47.0% |
4.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
59.3% /
24.0% |
31.2 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
SEA |
7 – 24 L |
-1.0 |
22.5% /
50.0% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.3 /
8.0 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
17.6% /
21.9% |
2.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
72 |
31.8% /
53.6% |
28.1% /
50.0% |
14.1% /
43.9% |
3.1 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
29.8% /
44.4% |
22.8 /
33.8 |
| 9 |
LA |
17 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
42.5% /
54.5% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
14.1 |
59.3% /
37.5% |
11.1% /
40.0% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
51.0% /
44.7% |
49.3% /
43.5% |
38.1% /
71.3% |
4.8 /
7.6 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
64.5% |
27.0 /
40.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
New York Giants
@ 
San Francisco 49ers