Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-13.5) vs NY Giants

Lean – Under (43)

· Jalen Hurts averaged only 4.6 yppp last Monday night in Seattle and TE Dallas Goedert gained just 3.3 yards per target. Goedert is averaging 0.27 EPA/target (10th) for the season, but I expect him to be contained again this week as the Giants are conceding a 49% success rate to tight ends (8th).

· New York cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is allowing 1.52 yards per cover snap ranking 72nd out of 76 qualifying cornerbacks and Hurt will attack him lined up across from wide receiver AJ Brown, who is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (9th).

· Philadelphia LG Landon Dickerson is likely out and he is allowing a 6.2% pressure rate compared to backup guard Sua Opeta surrendering an 8.1% pressure rate.

· Giants’ interior defender Dexter Lawrence has 59 pressures (2nd) but he is banged up and will be limited by C Jason Kelce, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Philadelphia’s defense has a 77.0% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest) but new play caller Matt Patricia should switch to more blitzing as New York is averaging 19% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz (3rd-largest gap).

· Tommy DeVito will have protection on his blindside with All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas containing edge defender Josh Sweat, whose 60 pressures rank 12th.

· However, DeVito won’t be kept entirely clean as Eagles interior defender Jalen Carter ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and the rookie will line up across from LG Justin Pugh, who surrendered 6 pressures last week.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 10.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.8.