Game Analysis

Lean – NY Giants (+1.5) over LAS VEGAS

· The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and benched Jimmy Garoppolo. It will be rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell making his second NFL start this week. O’Connell also came in for some relief work versus the Bears in week 7 and he is averaging -0.11 EPA/play with 59 dropbacks. Garoppolo averaged -0.05 EPA/play translating to about 2 points per game better than O’Connell.

· The Lions’ 71% pressure rate on Garoppolo last week was the highest for a defense in a game going back five seasons. New York’s defense has a 51.1% blitz rate (2nd-highest) and they will test this Las Vegas offensive line again.

· The Giants’ best pass rusher is interior defender Dexter Lawrence, whose 15 pressures last week were the most of any player in a game this season. Lawrence had 8 pressures across from Jets C Connor McGovern, who ranks last in pass blocking. Lawrence had 8 pressures in week 7 across from Commanders C Nick Gates, who ranks 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency. Lawrence will not do as much damage from a zero-tech alignment in this game across from Raiders’ C Andre James, who is allowing only 1.3 pressures per game (9th).

· Raiders All-Pro WR Davante Adams has a team-high 25% target share with O’Connell under center and he has a favorable matchup versus CB Adoree’ Jackson, who is surrendering 1.89 yards per cover snap (3rd-worst).

· Daniel Jones will suit up on Sunday and New York’s offense will likely have both starting tackles on the field together for the first game since week 1. However, Las Vegas edge defender Maxx Crosby leads the NFL with 47 pressures and he will wreak havoc across from RT Evan Neal, who ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

· Giants LT Andrew Thomas ranked 8th in pass-blocking efficiency last year and he will slide Justin Pugh from tackle to guard benching LG Mark Glowinski, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· New York TE Darren Waller has a 58% success rate (7th) but he will likely be sidelined with another hamstring injury after missing 8 games last season.

· Our model favors the Giants by 0.9 with a predicted total of 38.6 points. The matchups favor the Raiders in this game but NYG applies to a 122-57-4 ATS situation that plays on teams that have scored 17 points or fewer in 4 or more consecutive games.