Game Analysis

DALLAS (-17) vs NY Giants

· The Dallas defense leads the league with a 47.4% pressure rate and being massive favorites in this game starts up front as New York’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Cowboys edge defender Micah Parsons leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will collapse pockets lined up across from backup RT Tyre Phillips.

· The Giants will be without Daniel Jones and tight end Darren Waller, whose 59% success rate ranks 9th.

· Tommy DeVito will be the worst quarterback to earn a start this season and the offense around him does not have enough talent to beat man coverage. New York’s yards per attempt versus man-coverage is only 74% of their yards per attempt against zone coverage (27th) where the scheme can mask some of the deficiencies. However, Brian Daboll’s play calling won’t work well in this game against a Dallas defense that has a 41.1% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· Meanwhile, Dak Prescott’s yards per attempt against man-coverage is 40% more than his yards per attempt versus zone (3rd-largest gap) and he will have a favorable matchup against New York’s league-high 42.7% man rate.

· Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has received more than 80% of the snaps on offense in the last three games after averaging just 44.6 snaps per game in the first 5 weeks. The increased workload is justified as Prescott has a 52% success rate with Ferguson on the field compared to a 36% success rate without Ferguson.

· Dexter Lawrence leads interior defenders with 44 pressures, and he will line up across from Dallas C Tyler Biadasz, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency. The Cowboys will try to double-team Lawrence using LG Tyler Smith, who has allowed a league-low 3.3% pressure rate this year.

· Dallas may have trouble extending the lead with the ground game if they are up by double digits as the Giants have the 7th-rated rush defense according to our metrics.

· The Cowboys are what I refer to as a bully, as they beat up on mediocre and bad teams and struggle to cover the number against good teams. Dallas is now 47-22-2 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .500 or less since Dak Prescott’s first season at quarterback and the Cowboys are also 13-2 ATS after a loss, including 9 straight spread wins.

· Our model favors the Cowboys by only 12.2 points, but 16.6 is the fair line when the Cowboys’ significant matchup advantage and this is the type of team that Dallas beats up on. The model predicted total is 39.7 points.