Game Analysis

Lean – Under 45 – BUFFALO (-14.5) vs NY Giants

· New York has been outscored by 91 points through five weeks and the injuries are piling up. It looks like Daniel Jones will miss this game and his scrambles are basically the only way the Giants offense has been able to effectively move the ball this season. Jones’ rushing has accounted for 15.4% of New York’s total yardage in 2023. Jones is 1.5 points better than backup Tyrod Taylor by our metrics.

· Taylor will be behind the worst offensive line in the NFL. The Giants rank last in pass-blocking efficiency. They will once again be without starting LT Andrew Thomas and starting C John Michael Schmitz. New York’s 30 sacks surrendered are the 2nd-most through 5 games of any offense in NFL history.

· Bills interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from backup center Ben Bredson.

· Buffalo edge defender Von Miller had 11 pass rushes in his first game back and he will likely get more work on Sunday in a favorable matchup against backup left tackle Joshua Ezeudu.

· Giants RT Evan Neal has surrendered a league-high 26 pressures, and he will struggle versus edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who has 5.5 sacks (6th).

· The Bills will be without interior defender DaQuan Jones, who had 15 pressures (11th) before tearing his pec in London last week.

· Buffalo LB Matt Milano suffered a serious knee injury halfway through the first quarter against the Jaguars and is likely to miss the rest of the season. Milano ranks 6th in coverage grade by PFF and has 2 interceptions. Giants TE Darren Waller has a 56% success rate when targeted (9th) and he will have a favorable matchup without Milano on the field.

· Josh Allen’s yards per attempt against man coverage is 33% higher than versus zone (4th-largest gap) and New York’s defense has a 31.3% man rate (5th-highest).

· Stefon Diggs has a 66% success rate (7th) and he will win his matchup against CB Adoree Jackson, who is surrendering 1.92 yards per cover snap (4th-worst).

· Buffalo’s ground game has a 45.2% success rate (4th) and they will be able to kill the game after taking a lead as the Giants’ defense ranks 30th in EPA/rush.

· Our model favors the Bills by 12.2 points, with a predicted total of 43.0 points. The model shows some value on the Giants, but the matchups significantly favor the Bills.