Game Analysis

Lean – MINNESOTA (+2.5) over New Orleans

Lean – Under (41)

· Joshua Dobbs pulled out the victory for the Vikings last week without knowing most of his teammate’s names after getting traded to Minnesota on Tuesday. Dobbs had 66 rushing yards against the Falcons, and he has made defenses pay when they turn their backs to him this year.

· Dobbs is averaging 0.15 EPA/play versus man coverage compared to -0.20 EPA/play against zone with the caveat that most of his dropbacks this season were in Arizona’s system. The Saints have a 31.8% man coverage rate (7th-highest) and Dobbs could use his mobility to rack up yards on the ground again because his receiving options are bleak.

· Two Vikings starting wide receivers Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn will be out this week and New Orleans can bottle up Jordan Addison, whose 0.53 EPA/target ranks 8th. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has 6 pass breakups (4th) and CB Paulson Adebo had a pair of interceptions and a forced incompletion last game.

· New Orleans is conceding only a 44% success rate to tight ends (4th) and they will limit tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 1.72 yards per route run (7th).

· Derek Carr should have clean pockets against the blitz as Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency and he should contain edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who has 35 pressures (18th).

· Our model makes New Orleans a 4.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 39.5 points, but the situation strongly favors Minnesota. The Vikings apply to a 123-54-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while New Orleans applies to a 67-139-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their current win streak. Minnesota gets my highest technical analysis rating and those games have bene 58.9% winners over many years. I won’t make the Vikings a play because the line value favors the Saints, but I’ll lean with Minnesota.