Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **New Orleans (+1 -105) over INDIANAPOLIS

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (42.5)

· The Indianapolis secondary is in disarray. The Colts cut projected starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers after a year-long gambling suspension. CB Darrell Baker surrendered 10.8 yards per target in the first two games of the season before getting benched. Cornerback Dallis Flowers then had a season-ending Achilles injury but they didn’t want to put Baker back in, so they went with seventh-round rookie CB Jaylon Jones.

· Indianapolis starting CB Juju Brents suffered a quadriceps injury, and he will be out, which forces Baker back onto the field. Baker will struggle versus Saints WR Chris Olave, who has a league-high 19 targets with at least 20 air yards.

· New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 1.62 yards per route run (3rd) and Derek Carr will find him on screens as the Colts defense is surrendering a 51% pass success rate to running backs (28th).

· Saints LT Trevor Penning allowed 4 sacks in 6 starts and got benched. New Orleans tackles James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk both missed the game last Thursday night. Andrus Peat surrendered 10 pressures against Jaguars at left tackle, but I expect the Saints to put Cameron Erving there this week to fortify the offensive line with Ramczyk likely back at right tackle. Erving started for Ramczyk last week and conceded just 1 pressure on 59 pass-blocking snaps.

· The New Orleans defense has a 33.3% man-coverage rate this season (6th-highest). Shane Steichen specializes in beating man as Indianapolis is averaging 33% more yards per attempt versus man than zone coverage this year (5th-largest gap). Gardner Minshew only has a 3.4% sack rate against man coverage (4th) compared to a 9.0% sack rate versus zone (26th).

· The Saints’ 8.6% pressure rate last week was the lowest by a defense in a game this season but they should get better in this game. Colts RT Braden Smith ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency but he is likely out – leaving backup Blake Freeland to line up across from edge rusher Cameron Jordan, who has 27 pressures (15th).

· Indianapolis is one of five offenses to use 11 personnel on at least 75% of their snaps and slot receiver Josh Downs is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (16th). Downs has a favorable matchup on the inside as New Orleans nickelback Alontae Taylor is surrendering 1.55 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd-most).

· Our model favors New Orleans by 7.1 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points, and the Saints apply to a 432-283-17 ATS indicator that is based on the disparity in the season spread win percentages of these teams.

New Orleans is a 2-Star Best Bet at -1.5 or less (1-Star to -2.5) and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43 points or less (Strong Opinion at 43.5).