New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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GREEN BAY (+4.5) vs New Orleans

The Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers in this game for the first time since 2013. My quarterback model projects Brett Hundley to be about 10 points worse than Rodgers per game and, considering the look-ahead line for this game was GB -6.5, that seems to be pretty much in line with the market. However, even with Rodgers under center, Green Bay’s offense hadn’t been up to their usual standards this season – going into last week the Packers were gaining just 5.3 yppl (now 5.0 yppl). Green Bay has been lucky to score touchdowns on 73% of their redzone opportunities, no team in the last 10 years has been able to sustain that rate over the course of a season and the Packers certainly won’t without Rodgers’ magic.

Hundley playing also likely means the Packers 26th ranked defense will be only the field more often. Green Bay’s defense has relied on takeaways this season, which likely won’t very successful against Drew Brees and the Saints offense – Brees ranks 8th among active quarterbacks in interception percentage and New Orleans only has 3 turnovers this season. The 2017 version of the Saints offense has been more balanced, ranking top 10 in both rushing and passing, as the Saints are calling passes on less than 60% of plays for the first time since 2009. I expect New Orleans to move the ball successfully this week while the Packers struggle.

My ratings favor New Orleans in this game but Green Bay applies to a 144-69-6 ATS contrary indicator and teams tend to play better than expected in the first game after losing their starting quarterback. So, I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Packers

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 50.4% 48.1%
Sack Rate 2.1% 8.0%
Int Rate 1.3% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 15.5%
Big Pass Yards 43.9% 50.1%
NYPP 6.9 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 24.0
RB YPR 4.1 4.3
Stuff Rate 16.0% 27.5%
Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 46.4%
Big Rush Yards 48.1% 45.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.2

Game

All Snaps 63.0 64.0
Early Down Succ 50.9% 47.6%
Succ Rate 48.7% 46.7%
Big Yards Rate 46.3% 49.3%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.4
Run Ratio 41.1% 37.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 26.4
Game Control 1.8 -1.8

Points 29.0 23.2

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5
3	@CAR	34 – 13 W	8.6	46.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 10.8%	0.0% / 9.1%	7.1 / 4.2	55.6% / 77.3%	25.9% / 4.5%	5.5 / 6.0	57 / 59	51.1% / 57.8%	50.9% / 55.9%	55.5% / 40.3%	6.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 37.3%	37.8 / 25.2
4	@MIA	20 – 0 W	5.5	48.8% / 37.5%	2.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 3.6%	6.4 / 4.0	46.4% / 60.0%	14.3% / 40.0%	3.1 / 3.9	69 / 47	46.3% / 52.6%	47.8% / 44.7%	46.1% / 31.7%	5.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 31.9%	28.8 / 27.0
6	DET	52 – 38 W	15.8	45.2% / 35.1%	0.0% / 8.8%	6.5% / 5.8%	6.0 / 4.9	45.9% / 15.8%	13.5% / 36.8%	5.2 / 3.5	68 / 76	50.9% / 24.6%	45.6% / 30.3%	51.7% / 53.3%	5.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 2.6%	54.4% / 25.0%	29.4 / 27.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	17 – 9 W	2.5	50.0% / 40.0%	8.7% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.5	35.5% / 38.9%	19.4% / 50.0%	2.8 / 5.0	77 / 48	44.6% / 44.4%	44.2% / 39.6%	37.8% / 58.7%	4.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	40.3% / 37.5%	25.9 / 27.5
2	@ATL	23 – 34 L	-12.4	50.9% / 51.6%	5.7% / 9.7%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.2	56.3% / 55.6%	25.0% / 18.5%	3.8 / 5.2	69 / 58	53.8% / 55.3%	52.2% / 53.4%	24.2% / 50.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	23.2% / 46.6%	22.1 / 26.7
3	CIN	27 – 24 W	-6.6	43.8% / 53.3%	12.5% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.4	47.1% / 32.3%	29.4% / 29.0%	3.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	44.0% / 46.8%	44.6% / 42.6%	58.1% / 31.8%	5.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	26.2% / 50.8%	25.8 / 26.5
4	CHI	35 – 14 W	16.9	41.4% / 38.2%	6.9% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	5.8 / 6.0	48.0% / 40.0%	4.0% / 26.7%	3.7 / 3.4	54 / 64	43.2% / 36.0%	44.4% / 39.1%	50.6% / 25.6%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.1%	46.3% / 46.9%	33.5 / 28.5
5	@DAL	35 – 31 W	-4.2	51.5% / 59.5%	12.1% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.5 / 6.6	64.0% / 60.0%	12.0% / 14.3%	6.4 / 4.7	58 / 72	58.0% / 57.9%	56.9% / 59.7%	43.3% / 28.7%	5.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 2.8%	43.1% / 48.6%	22.3 / 25.7
6	@MIN	10 – 23 L	-5.9	39.0% / 44.7%	9.8% / 0.0%	8.1% / 2.6%	3.8 / 6.3	20.8% / 35.3%	29.2% / 41.2%	3.0 / 3.3	65 / 72	33.3% / 43.9%	32.3% / 40.3%	11.5% / 46.0%	3.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.4%	36.9% / 47.2%	30.1 / 30.2

New Orleans Saints @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Oct 22

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis