New Orleans Saints @

Carolina Panthers

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Carolina Panthers +3.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (44) – New Orleans (-3.5) vs CAROLINA

These two teams met in week 17 last season and the total closed 46.5 at the same venue. The defenses remain mostly unchanged from that game and the quarterbacks are less conservative, yet the total is 2.5 points lower.

Drew Brees threw just five passes all of last season with 30 air yards or more and New Orleans relied on a dink and dunk offense. The Saints’ new starting quarterback Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions in 2019 due to Bruce Arians’ aggressive downfield scheme but Sean Payton seems to have found a balance between last year’s offense with Brees at the helm while still utilizing Winston’s arm talent. Winston averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt in week 1 which is 1.5 yards lower than any season of his career but also higher than all but two games Brees had in 2020.

Carolina’s offense looked solid in Sam Darnold’s debut, and they face a hobbled Saints defense this week. Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore forced two incompletions and conceded just two receptions against the Packers but he has surgery to fix a chipped bone in thumb and will miss this game. Also, edge rusher Marcus Davenport may miss some time with a pectoral strain. Lattimore and Davenport are worth about a point to this New Orleans defense.

Our model favors the Saints by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.5 points, and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 44.5 points or less. As far as the side is concerned, while the model shows some value on the Saints, they could be due for a letdown after last week’s 38-3 upset win over the Packers. New Orleans applies to a 6-31 ATS week 2 letdown situation. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 44.5 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Panthers
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 21.0 37.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 61.9% 35.1%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 5.4%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 5.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 22.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.4% 31.3%
  • NYPP 7.2 5.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 39.0 15.0
  • RB YPR 4.0 2.9
  • Stuff Rate 23.1% 13.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.8% 20.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.7% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 2.9




Game

  • All Snaps 60.0 52.0
  • Early Down Succ 56.3% 35.1%
  • Succ Rate 56.7% 30.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.0% 25.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 4.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 34.8 29.1
  • Run Ratio 65.0% 28.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 15.3 -15.3
 
  • Points 38.0 3.0
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