Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – Pittsburgh Team Total Under (18 -115)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on New England (+6) to +4.5

· Mitchell Trubisky will start for Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and he is 0-2 versus Bill Belichick averaging 0.5 yppp fewer than his career yards per pass play, which isn’t particularly good either at just 5.9 yppp.

· I expect Mike Tomlin will not want to put the game in Trubisky’s hands especially when he believes in his defense against New England’s offense. The Steelers will look to run the ball but the Patriots are conceding a league-low 31.5% rush success rate.

· New England’s passing attack won’t fare much better as the Patriots’ yards per attempt versus man is a league-low 64% of their yards per attempt against zone coverage. Bailey Zappe will struggle as Pittsburgh’s defense plays man-coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the league.

· The Steelers are allowing only a 36% pass success rate to running backs (7th) and they will contain the screens from the Patriots, who are targeting running backs on 23.0% of passes (6th-most).

· New England WR Demario Douglas is averaging 1.87 yards per route run in the slot (8th) but it looks like he’ll be out once more with a concussion.

· Zappe’s best option will be to step up in clean pockets and look downfield.

· Patriots RT Mike Onwenu ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will battle across from edge defender TJ Watt, whose 14.0 sacks rank 2nd in the NFL.

· Pittsburgh edge rusher Alex Highsmith has 48 pressures (16th) but he will be limited by LT Trent Brown, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.

· The total of 30 for this game is the league’s lowest since 2004 and it looks a touch high by our numbers.

· New England has lost straight up and to the spread in 5 consecutive games, which is about the time when the market starts to overreact. Non-division underdogs that have lost 5 or more games in a row to the spread are 172-123-6 ATS and the Patriots apply to a 57-10 ATS subset of that situation. Despite their recent woes, the Pats’ defense continues to play well and they have held their opponent under their team total in 3 consecutive games.

· Our model favors the Steelers by just 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 29.4 points, and the situation is favorable. However, like last week (a 0-6 loss to the Chargers) we want to keep the Patriots’ offense out of the equation by playing their opponent’s team total under.

The Pittsburgh Team Total Under is a 2-Star Best Bet Under 17.5 -120 odds or better and 1-Star down to 17.5 -130 (or 2-Star at Under 19 -140, 1-Star Under 19 to -150).