New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA

New England suffered their first loss of the season to Baltimore prior to their bye week and it’s never wise to buck Brady and Belichick following a loss. The Patriots are 45-8 straight up in their last 53 regular season games following a loss (and 3-1 SU in the playoffs) and they’re an amazing 30-2 ATS in those games off a loss when not favored by more than 6 points (from -6 to dog). This is also the first meeting between Belichick and Doug Peterson since the Eagles’ upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. The Patriots are really good at getting their revenge, as they are 64-15 straight up and 55-24 ATS going back to 2000 when facing a team that they lost to in their previous meeting, including 43-14 ATS when not laying 7 points or more (12-0 ATS after a loss). This season the Pats have had two revenge games and they beat Pittsburgh 33-3 (with Roethlisberger at QB for Pitt) and beat Miami 43-0. The matchup stuff really doesn’t matter given those trends but in the interest of your fantasy football team, here it is.

One key matchup in the trenches should make a huge impact for the Eagles in this game. Right tackle Lane Johnson has surrendered only one sack this season and he will neutralize edge rusher Kyle Van Noy, who is ranked 13th in pass rushing efficiency. Furthermore, 69% of Philadelphia’s outside runs are to the right because Johnson ranks as the best run blocking tackle according to Pro Football Focus. Van Noy has just a 4.1% run stop rate (6th-worst) and I expect the Eagles to dominate on the ground when running behind their right tackle. Backup left tackle Andre Dillard has conceded the same amount of pressures as Johnson despite playing nearly 200 fewer pass blocking snaps, but it looks like starter Jason Peters could return this week to solidify Philadelphia’s offensive line. However, the Patriots may have an advantage on the inside with Adam Butler, ranked 15th in pass rushing efficiency, lining up across from left guard Isaac Seumalo, who has allowed 22 pressures (8th-most). Alshon Jeffery is nursing an ankle injury and has no chance versus All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but I expect Carson Wentz to utilize Zach Ertz in this matchup, as he is targeting tight ends on 34.6% of his passes (3rd-highest).

Tom Brady is targeting running backs on 29.6% of passes (3rd-highest) and James White is gaining 2.23 yards per route run (2nd). Linebacker Nigel Bradham (questionable) is surrendering only 0.64 yards per cover snap, but he has missed the previous 3 games and his status will be worth monitoring on Sunday. Julian Edelman is averaging 1.69 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from terrible nickelback Avonte Maddox. Brandon Graham ranks 9th among edge rushers with 45 pressures but he will be neutralized by right tackle Marcus Cannon, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency. However, Fletcher Cox is 4th in pass rushing efficiency and should have more success on the interior versus right guard Shaq Mason.

Lane Johnson will take Kyle Van Noy out of this game, leaving New England’s defense exposed up front, but James White and Julian Edelman will be effective for the Pats’ attack – particularly if Nigel Bradham isn’t in uniform. Both teams are coming off a bye and the model favors the Patriots a 3.2-points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points. There is no value on New England based on the model and the matchups appear to favor the Eagles a bit, but I’ll lean with the Patriots based on Belichick and Brady’s long history in games off a loss and when facing a team that they lost to the last time out. By the way, New England is also 11-0-1 Under in their last 12 regular season games following a loss.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Eagles

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.8 36.4
Succ Pass Plays 48.7% 34.1%
Sack Rate 4.3% 9.8%
Int Rate 1.5% 6.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 24.8%
Big Pass Yards 43.6% 32.3%
NYPP 6.6 4.1

Rush

Rush Plays 28.1 21.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.4
Stuff Rate 25.1% 21.5%
Succ Rush Plays 44.9% 43.5%
Big Rush Yards 27.8% 34.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.5

Game

All Snaps 69.9 57.4
Early Down Succ 49.3% 42.3%
Succ Rate 46.9% 36.7%
Big Yards Rate 40.0% 37.3%
Yards Per Play 5.2 4.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 28.3
Run Ratio 40.2% 36.6%
Starting Field Pos 33.6 24.6
Game Control 10.8 -10.8

Points 30.0 10.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	33 – 3 W	16.3	57.9% / 35.4%	2.6% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.1%	9.6 / 5.8	41.4% / 53.8%	24.1% / 23.1%	3.4 / 2.5	67 / 61	50.9% / 43.5%	50.7% / 39.3%	53.1% / 37.3%	6.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 21.3%	27.8 / 26.0
2	@MIA	43 – 0 W	16.0	60.0% / 28.3%	6.7% / 15.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	8.5 / 3.1	60.0% / 33.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	3.6 / 2.8	65 / 61	62.3% / 33.3%	60.0% / 29.5%	28.6% / 13.0%	5.9 / 3.0	1.5% / 0.0%	53.8% / 24.6%	33.5 / 27.9
3	NYJ	30 – 14 W	17.6	54.3% / 22.2%	2.2% / 18.5%	2.2% / 4.5%	6.8 / 2.6	33.3% / 20.0%	14.8% / 30.0%	2.5 / 1.8	73 / 47	50.0% / 29.4%	46.6% / 21.3%	35.7% / 21.9%	5.2 / 2.2	1.4% / 0.0%	37.0% / 42.6%	40.3 / 18.2
4	@BUF	16 – 10 W	7.9	20.5% / 36.7%	0.0% / 10.2%	2.6% / 9.1%	3.8 / 4.9	47.8% / 50.0%	17.4% / 13.6%	3.2 / 6.1	62 / 71	33.3% / 47.3%	30.6% / 40.8%	32.1% / 46.9%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 31.0%	27.1 / 29.9
5	@WAS	33 – 7 W	9.4	48.9% / 30.3%	8.5% / 18.2%	2.3% / 3.7%	6.6 / 2.3	44.4% / 45.0%	25.9% / 15.0%	4.8 / 7.3	74 / 53	51.7% / 42.9%	47.3% / 35.8%	49.3% / 50.5%	6.0 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.9%	36.5% / 37.7%	32.4 / 23.8
6	NYG	35 – 14 W	6.7	52.3% / 34.4%	6.8% / 3.1%	2.4% / 9.7%	7.1 / 5.0	41.2% / 31.3%	29.4% / 18.8%	3.4 / 3.3	78 / 48	50.8% / 38.9%	47.4% / 33.3%	51.5% / 34.7%	5.5 / 4.4	1.3% / 2.1%	43.6% / 33.3%	33.3 / 26.6
7	@NYJ	33 – 0 W	19.6	48.9% / 18.2%	0.0% / 3.0%	2.2% / 12.5%	5.5 / 2.2	38.2% / 50.0%	47.1% / 20.0%	2.2 / 4.1	79 / 53	45.0% / 35.0%	44.3% / 30.2%	38.1% / 32.5%	4.1 / 2.9	0.0% / 3.8%	43.0% / 37.7%	37.4 / 24.3
8	CLE	27 – 13 W	12.1	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 13.9%	0.0% / 3.2%	6.1 / 4.2	33.3% / 59.1%	40.7% / 22.7%	2.9 / 7.2	66 / 58	39.6% / 53.3%	39.4% / 46.6%	52.8% / 59.7%	4.8 / 5.3	0.0% / 3.4%	40.9% / 37.9%	36.2 / 25.2
9	@BAL	20 – 37 L	-8.4	52.1% / 62.5%	4.2% / 4.2%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.8	64.7% / 48.8%	11.8% / 17.1%	4.4 / 5.1	65 / 65	59.6% / 56.9%	55.4% / 53.8%	19.0% / 39.5%	5.3 / 5.7	1.5% / 3.1%	26.2% / 63.1%	34.7 / 20.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	32 – 27 W	-4.0	55.0% / 47.8%	2.5% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.0	45.2% / 30.8%	22.6% / 23.1%	4.0 / 2.2	71 / 59	47.1% / 44.2%	50.7% / 44.1%	42.0% / 40.2%	6.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 22.0%	31.4 / 23.5
2	@ATL	20 – 24 L	-4.4	43.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.3%	4.2% / 7.0%	4.6 / 7.0	33.3% / 47.1%	19.0% / 23.5%	2.3 / 3.4	72 / 61	35.3% / 53.1%	40.3% / 49.2%	15.0% / 46.6%	4.0 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	29.2% / 27.9%	38.5 / 23.4
3	DET	24 – 27 L	-4.8	43.6% / 40.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	46.7% / 35.7%	10.0% / 39.3%	4.2 / 3.1	69 / 60	44.4% / 38.6%	44.9% / 38.3%	54.4% / 43.2%	5.4 / 4.8	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 46.7%	25.6 / 38.9
4	@GB	34 – 27 W	0.2	55.6% / 48.1%	0.0% / 1.9%	0.0% / 1.9%	5.9 / 7.7	69.7% / 55.0%	6.1% / 30.0%	5.3 / 3.9	60 / 74	67.3% / 50.8%	63.3% / 50.0%	31.3% / 39.5%	5.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.4%	55.0% / 27.0%	31.9 / 21.0
5	NYJ	31 – 6 W	16.1	43.3% / 25.0%	3.3% / 27.8%	0.0% / 7.7%	6.0 / 1.7	34.5% / 42.1%	34.5% / 26.3%	2.9 / 3.5	59 / 55	42.9% / 35.0%	39.0% / 30.9%	44.2% / 25.0%	4.5 / 2.3	1.7% / 1.8%	49.2% / 34.5%	35.2 / 27.1
6	@MIN	20 – 38 L	-10.8	53.5% / 63.3%	4.7% / 3.3%	4.9% / 3.4%	6.8 / 10.8	59.1% / 37.1%	13.6% / 34.3%	4.9 / 3.5	65 / 65	62.0% / 54.7%	55.4% / 49.2%	53.0% / 52.3%	6.2 / 6.9	1.5% / 1.5%	33.8% / 53.8%	26.2 / 33.3
7	@DAL	10 – 37 L	-15.2	44.8% / 60.0%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 3.7%	5.8 / 7.1	42.9% / 44.4%	21.4% / 16.7%	4.1 / 5.3	57 / 66	45.7% / 49.0%	43.9% / 51.5%	47.0% / 39.6%	5.0 / 6.1	5.3% / 0.0%	49.1% / 54.5%	18.8 / 41.7
8	@BUF	31 – 13 W	5.2	48.1% / 31.6%	11.1% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 4.1	48.8% / 50.0%	29.3% / 35.0%	5.3 / 4.9	68 / 58	50.0% / 39.0%	48.5% / 37.9%	57.7% / 44.3%	5.5 / 4.4	1.5% / 1.7%	60.3% / 34.5%	36.4 / 29.4
9	CHI	22 – 14 W	7.7	51.2% / 25.0%	9.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.3	51.4% / 50.0%	14.3% / 33.3%	4.2 / 3.4	78 / 42	53.4% / 40.6%	51.3% / 35.7%	20.9% / 61.0%	4.8 / 3.9	0.0% / 2.4%	44.9% / 42.9%	26.9 / 28.9

New England Patriots @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 17

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis