New England Patriots @ New York Jets Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New England (-9.5) vs NY JETS

Sam Darnold averaged 9.6 yards per pass play in his return last week but now must face New England’s league best secondary that has 14 interceptions and only 1 passing touchdown surrendered. Jamison Crowder has 24 targets and is gaining 2.53 yards per route run in Darnold’s two starts. Crowder will line up across from Jonathan Jones, who has been the Patriots worst defensive back thus far. Robby Anderson had a 92-yard catch last week but I expect him to be shut down by Stephon Gilmore on the outside. Kyle Van Noy ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and will do some damage lining up across from rookie right tackle Chuma Edoga. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 0.25 avoided tackles per rush (2nd) and has forced 12 miss tackles on receptions (2nd), but he should be eliminated by Bill Belichick. Belichick is known for taking away the opposing offenses’ more dangerous weapon and New England’s rush defense ranks 2^nd and allows only 5.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (5th).

Tom Brady targets running backs at the highest rate in the league with James White gaining 1.95 yards per route run (5th). The Jets get Pro Bowl linebacker CJ Mosley back this week, which goes a long way in stopping White out of the backfield if he’s fully healthy. New York’s 9th-rated rush defense would also likely improve with Mosley on the field and they should limit Sony Michel, who is forcing a league-low 0.08 missed tackles per rush. Julian Edelman has been more effective on the outside, gaining 2.66 yards per route run, than in the slot, gaining 1.67 yards per route run. Edelman only takes about a third of his snaps on the outside but we could see more in this matchup. Nickelback Brian Poole is conceding just 0.60 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) while outside cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts have combined to surrender 1.46 yards per cover snap. We also may see first round wide receiver N’Keal Harry make his debut in this favorable matchup.

I’m expecting a bad game from Le’Veon Bell and the Patriots should be well prepared after 10 full days off between games (they played last week on Thursday). In fact, New England applies to a 72-27-1 ATS favorite off of 10-days or more off angle and our model favors the Patriots by 11.4 points (with a predicted total of 43.8 points). I like the Patriots again this week.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Jets

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.7 39.2
Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 31.2%
Sack Rate 4.5% 11.2%
Int Rate 1.6% 6.6%
Deep Pass Rate 17.5% 23.1%
Big Pass Yards 45.6% 33.2%
NYPP 7.1 3.9

Rush

Rush Plays 29.2 17.7
RB YPR 3.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 21.0% 22.3%
Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 38.9%
Big Rush Yards 28.3% 23.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.9

Game

All Snaps 69.8 56.8
Early Down Succ 49.8% 39.2%
Succ Rate 47.1% 33.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.7% 34.1%
Yards Per Play 5.5 4.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.8
Run Ratio 41.9% 31.8%
Starting Field Pos 32.4 25.4
Game Control 12.3 -12.3

Points 31.7 8.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	33 – 3 W	16.3	57.9% / 35.4%	2.6% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.1%	9.6 / 5.8	41.4% / 53.8%	24.1% / 23.1%	3.4 / 2.5	67 / 61	50.9% / 43.5%	50.7% / 39.3%	53.1% / 37.3%	6.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 21.3%	27.8 / 26.0
2	@MIA	43 – 0 W	16.0	60.0% / 28.3%	6.7% / 15.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	8.5 / 3.1	60.0% / 33.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	3.6 / 2.8	65 / 61	62.3% / 33.3%	60.0% / 29.5%	28.6% / 13.0%	5.9 / 3.0	1.5% / 0.0%	53.8% / 24.6%	33.5 / 27.9
3	NYJ	30 – 14 W	17.6	54.3% / 22.2%	2.2% / 18.5%	2.2% / 4.5%	6.8 / 2.6	33.3% / 20.0%	14.8% / 30.0%	2.5 / 1.8	73 / 47	50.0% / 29.4%	46.6% / 21.3%	35.7% / 21.9%	5.2 / 2.2	1.4% / 0.0%	37.0% / 42.6%	40.3 / 18.2
4	@BUF	16 – 10 W	7.9	20.5% / 36.7%	0.0% / 10.2%	2.6% / 9.1%	3.8 / 4.9	47.8% / 50.0%	17.4% / 13.6%	3.2 / 6.1	62 / 71	33.3% / 47.3%	30.6% / 40.8%	32.1% / 46.9%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 31.0%	27.1 / 29.9
5	@WAS	33 – 7 W	9.4	48.9% / 30.3%	8.5% / 18.2%	2.3% / 3.7%	6.6 / 2.3	44.4% / 45.0%	25.9% / 15.0%	4.8 / 7.3	74 / 53	51.7% / 42.9%	47.3% / 35.8%	49.3% / 50.5%	6.0 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.9%	36.5% / 37.7%	32.4 / 23.8
6	NYG	35 – 14 W	6.7	52.3% / 34.4%	6.8% / 3.1%	2.4% / 9.7%	7.1 / 5.0	41.2% / 31.3%	29.4% / 18.8%	3.4 / 3.3	78 / 48	50.8% / 38.9%	47.4% / 33.3%	51.5% / 34.7%	5.5 / 4.4	1.3% / 2.1%	43.6% / 33.3%	33.3 / 26.6

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	16 – 17 L	7.1	42.2% / 55.3%	8.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	3.4 / 6.4	52.4% / 48.0%	33.3% / 20.0%	3.2 / 5.1	66 / 63	46.8% / 54.9%	45.5% / 52.4%	9.9% / 50.0%	3.4 / 5.9	1.5% / 3.2%	31.8% / 39.7%	28.4 / 22.9
2	CLE	3 – 23 L	-12.5	25.7% / 34.2%	11.4% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.8 / 8.0	41.7% / 28.6%	37.5% / 38.1%	3.9 / 3.3	59 / 59	39.5% / 33.3%	32.2% / 32.2%	42.4% / 74.4%	4.4 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.7% / 35.6%	18.0 / 33.6
3	@NE	14 – 30 L	-17.6	22.2% / 54.3%	18.5% / 2.2%	4.5% / 2.2%	2.6 / 6.8	20.0% / 33.3%	30.0% / 14.8%	1.8 / 2.5	47 / 73	29.4% / 50.0%	21.3% / 46.6%	21.9% / 35.7%	2.2 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.4%	42.6% / 37.0%	18.2 / 40.3
5	@PHI	6 – 31 L	-16.1	25.0% / 43.3%	27.8% / 3.3%	7.7% / 0.0%	1.7 / 6.0	42.1% / 34.5%	26.3% / 34.5%	3.5 / 2.9	55 / 59	35.0% / 42.9%	30.9% / 39.0%	25.0% / 44.2%	2.3 / 4.5	1.8% / 1.7%	34.5% / 49.2%	27.1 / 35.2
6	DAL	24 – 22 W	7.9	55.9% / 56.1%	5.9% / 2.4%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.6	30.0% / 47.1%	10.0% / 23.5%	2.8 / 3.8	54 / 75	54.8% / 50.9%	46.3% / 52.0%	56.8% / 22.1%	7.1 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.3%	25.3 / 26.7

New England Patriots @

New York Jets

Mon, Oct 21

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis