New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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DETROIT (+6.5/+7) vs New England

Tom Brady has yet to complete a pass more than 20 yards downfield to a wide receiver this season and to rectify that problem the Patriots traded for speedy wide receiver Josh Gordon this week. Gordon led the NFL in receiving yards 5 years ago, before being sidelined with off the field problems, and 39% of Gordon’s targets last year were deep targets, which would’ve been the 9th-highest rate in the league if he qualified. It remains to be seen if Josh Gordon will be up to speed on New England’s playbook and physically fit enough to make an impact, but he has the potential to start his Patriots tenure with a bang with Lions All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay questionable with a concussion.

Patriots right tackle Marcus Cannon looks like he may return from his calf injury after backup LaAdrian Waddle turned in some poor performances. Waddle ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency out of the 59 tackles with at least 50 pass blocking snaps this year. The Lions may have Ezekiel Ansah back for this game, which will be crucial in their effort to make Tom Brady uncomfortable. The Lions have no defender who recorded more than 30 quarterback pressures last season outside of Ansah and Brady tends to perform extremely well when he’s safe in the pocket.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford is at his best when his underneath passes are effective, which is something New England’s defense struggled to stop last week in Jacksonville. Trey Flowers may miss this game for the Patriots, which would be a huge blow as he’s their best pass rusher by far – leading the team in sacks and overall pressures. Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung is questionable as well while the Lions will be without T.J Lang, both of whom are worth about a half point.

There are a number of injury question marks for both defenses, but our model makes this line New England -3.6 assuming Slay, Ansah, Flowers, and Chung all play. However, the Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS coming off a loss in the Bill Belichick era and the Pats also apply to an 88-31-4 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s poor performance in Jacksonville. I’m going to pass on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Lions

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.0 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 48.7% 43.8%
Sack Rate 5.1% 4.1%
Int Rate 1.3% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 16.0% 19.5%
Big Pass Yards 37.4% 28.6%
NYPP 6.2 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 30.0
RB YPR 3.6 4.0
Stuff Rate 10.8% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 37.4% 40.9%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 54.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.5

Game

All Snaps 67.0 71.0
Early Down Succ 47.6% 44.7%
Succ Rate 44.0% 43.8%
Big Yards Rate 38.2% 40.1%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 25.4
Run Ratio 41.7% 42.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.7 30.6
Game Control -1.3 1.3

Points 23.5 25.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	27 – 20 W	10.6	48.8% / 29.7%	4.9% / 8.1%	2.6% / 2.9%	6.5 / 4.3	38.7% / 45.7%	9.7% / 25.7%	3.9 / 4.8	72 / 72	47.4% / 43.1%	44.4% / 37.5%	38.0% / 37.4%	5.4 / 4.5	2.8% / 1.4%	43.1% / 48.6%	25.4 / 35.4
2	@JAC	20 – 31 L	-13.1	48.6% / 57.8%	5.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 8.4	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 16.0%	3.3 / 4.2	62 / 70	47.9% / 46.3%	43.5% / 50.0%	38.3% / 42.7%	4.9 / 6.9	1.6% / 1.4%	40.3% / 35.7%	30.1 / 25.7

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	17 – 48 L	-11.9	44.2% / 65.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	9.6% / 4.8%	5.8 / 7.8	37.5% / 32.6%	25.0% / 9.3%	2.5 / 4.0	68 / 66	51.0% / 53.8%	42.6% / 43.9%	37.9% / 55.1%	5.0 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.5%	23.5% / 65.2%	23.0 / 40.7
2	@SF	27 – 30 L	-5.3	43.6% / 53.1%	3.6% / 18.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 4.9	44.4% / 44.8%	5.6% / 24.1%	5.4 / 6.6	73 / 61	44.6% / 56.3%	43.8% / 49.2%	38.4% / 48.7%	5.8 / 5.7	1.4% / 0.0%	24.7% / 47.5%	24.8 / 32.3

New England Patriots @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Sep 23

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis