Game Analysis

Lean – New England (+6.5) over DENVER

· The Patriots are down another key offensive player as TE Hunter Henry left the last game after taking a hit to the knee early in the fourth quarter. Henry has a 63% success rate (2nd) and is worth 0.9 points to New England’s offense according to our metrics.

· I expect Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to not ask too much of Bailey Zappe without Henry on the field and will likely lean on the ground game against a Broncos’ defense that is allowing a 43.1% rush success rate (30th).

· Denver interior defender Zach Allen has 51 pressures (6th) and should make his way to the backfield often in this game, as New England’s interior offensive line is responsible for 58% of the pressures (7th-most). Patriots starting left guard Cole Strange is likely out.

· Denver’s offense has the 10th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation, but they will struggle against a Patriots defense allowing a league-low 31.0% rush success rate.

· Russell Wilson’s yards per attempt against man coverage is 16% more than his yards per attempt versus zone (4th-largest gap) and he has a favorable matchup as New England’s defense has a 37.3% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest).

· Patriots’ interior defender Christian Barmore has 41 pressures (19th) but he will be shut down by C Lloyd Cushenberry, who ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency.

· New England’s defense has a 41.8% blitz rate (4th-highest) and teams that throw often to their running backs can exploit that tendency, as the Pats have yielded 0.20 EPA/target to running backs (31st). Wilson is targeting running backs on a league-high 31.1% of passes and we will see plenty of screens on Sunday night.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 33.5 points, but Denver applies to a 160-284-8 ATS home favorite situation.