Game Analysis

Lean – New England (+13) over BUFFALO

· Josh Allen was blitzed on half of his dropbacks for the second consecutive game, and it might be three straight this week as the Patriots have the 5th-highest blitz rate in the NFL.

· Bills RB James Cook is averaging 1.62 yards per route run (4th) and Allen will counter New England’s blitz by throwing screens as the Patriots are surrendering 0.12 EPA/target to running backs (30th).

· Allen will also look to scramble if there are gaps in the blitz as he is averaging 7.3 carries per game against Bill Belichick’s defense. However, Buffalo’s running backs will be shut down by a New England defense allowing a league-low 31.9% rush success rate.

· Patriots’ interior defender Christian Barmore had three sacks and a forced fumble last week but he will be contained as Mitch Morse is one of only 10 centers to concede 1 sack or fewer this year.

· New England’s offense could get back TE Hunter Henry, who has a 63% success rate (2nd).

· The Patriots are averaging 40% more yards per attempt against zone than man coverage this season (4th-largest gap) and Bailey Zappe has a favorable matchup versus a Bills defense with an 83.3% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Buffalo is allowing a 51% pass success rate to running backs (31st) and they will struggle against screens to RB Ezekiel Elliott, who is averaging 1.39 yards per route run (6th).

· Bills interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc as New England’s interior offensive line has been responsible for 58.0% of the pressures this season (4th-most).

· Our model makes Buffalo a 9.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, but I’ll just lean with the Patriots since they only seem to play their best lately when off consecutive losses (1-12 ATS last 13 when not on a losing streak).