Game Analysis

Minnesota (-3) vs New Orleans

· This will be our first London game of the year and it looks like it will be in average scoring conditions.

· We’ve seen the same old check down Kirk in the first three weeks despite Minnesota having a new coach in Kevin O’Connell. Only 7% of Cousins’ attempts have had 20+ air yards (29th).

· Cousins targets tight ends on 24% of attempts (7th-highest), but New Orleans safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye will shut those down. The Saints are allowing just 3.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

· WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.87 yards per route run in the slot (2nd). New Orleans nickelback Justin Evans is being targeted every 3.9 cover snaps in the slot and Cousins will look for Jefferson plenty unless the Saints decide to shadow the Pro Bowl wide receiver with CB Marshon Lattimore, who only has a 10% target rate (4th).

· The New Orleans rush defense ranks 4th and should contain a Vikings ground game averaging 4.9 yards per carry (8th).

· The Saints have scored five touchdowns in the fourth quarter but just one TD in the first three quarters this season. Clearly new play caller Pete Carmichael’s scripts are not working.

· Carmichael is letting Jameis Winston go vertical more often. Winston went from a 9.0 yards average depth of target last season with Sean Payton to league-leading 11.4 air yards per attempt this season.

· WR Michael Thomas (toe) was sidelined in the fourth quarter last week and did not return. WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) is banged-up as well. Winston will look downfield even more often without Thomas and Landry. New Orleans rookie wide receiver Chris Olave ranks second with a 19.3 yards average target depth and he had 147 yards last week in Carolina. However, new Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell calls shell coverage to limit explosives.

· Minnesota edge rusher Za’Darius Smith tallied a game-high five quarterback pressures versus Lions but LT James Hurst ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency.

Saints WR Michael Thomas is out and QB Jameis Winston is doubtful to play. There may also be some rain to deal with. I’ve updated the projection.

· Our model has the Vikings by 1.8 with a predicted total of 42.0.