Game Analysis

Lean – Minnesota (+3) over CINCINNATI

Lean – Over (40)

· The Vikings will make another change at quarterback and Nick Mullens is an upgrade over Joshua Dobbs, who is averaging -0.09 EPA/play. Mullens is not just a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system as has averaged 0.23 EPA/play in a limited sample since 2021 when he left San Francisco.

· Mullens will likely not have starting right tackle Brian O’Neill protecting him, but WR Justin Jefferson told reporters that he will play Saturday and he is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (11th).

· The Bengals are surrendering a 62% success rate to tight ends (31st) and they will struggle against tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 1.83 yards per route run (5th).

· Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has at least 7 pressures in consecutive games, but he will be contained by LT Christian Darrisaw, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Jake Browning is averaging 0.22 EPA/play (3rd) but he will have a new challenge to contend with this week.

· Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has the most unique scheme in the NFL, and it is nearly impossible to diagnose the coverage at the line of scrimmage. The Vikings blitz 6 pass rushers on a league-high 11.3% of snaps while sending 3 or fewer pass rushers on 10.7% of snaps (2nd-highest).

· Our model favors the Vikings by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.6 points. I’ll avoid making Minnesota a Best Bet because the situation favors the Bengals, which is offset somewhat by the matchups favoring the Vikings.