Our model leans with Minnesota in this game but last week’s upset of division rival Green Bay puts the Vikings in a traditionally terrible spot today. Teams that win as a home underdog tend to struggle on the road the next week (44.1% ATS the last 35 years) and Minnesota applies to a 22-76-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. The Minnesota rushing attack was horrible before Adrian Peterson got injured last week (just 1.9 ypr this season as a team) and I’m not ready to jump on the Sam Bradford bandwagon based on one good game. Bradford was 22 of 31 passing and averaged a healthy 7.3 yards per pass play with zero interceptions and the Vikings still only scored 17 points against the Packers. Bradford has been well below average in his career and one game in a new uniform is certainly not enough evidence to suggest that he’s suddenly a better quarterback – especially given that he was beat out of a starting job by a rookie that barely played in the preseason.

Carolina bounced back from their tough opening night loss at Denver with a solid win over the 49ers and I expect them to play well again this week against a Vikings team due for a letdown. I’ll lean with Carolina at -7 or less based on the strong situation despite the model leaning the other way. The model leans Under and there is also a 55-21 Under situation that applies so we lean Under in this game as well.