Game Analysis

Lean – Under (37) – ATLANTA (-4) vs Minnesota

· Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles and he will be out for the year. The Vikings traded for Joshua Dobbs but it will be fifth-round rookie Jarren Hall making the start under center on Sunday. Hall will come nowhere close to matching Cousins’ 6.8 yppp (6th) or his 2.5% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (7th-lowest).

· Atlanta’s defense is allowing a league-low 0.21 EPA/rush and they will force Hall to beat them with his passing.

· Minnesota WR Jordan Addison is gaining 0.59 EPA/target (9th) but he will be limited by CB Jeff Okudah, who is conceding 0.46 yards per cover snap (3rd).

· Falcons interior defender David Onyemata ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will see more double teams after DT Grady Jarrett tore his ACL last week.

· The Falcons benched Desmond Ridder and it will be Taylor Heinicke at quarterback this week. We will not be adjusting Atlanta’s offense up or down as both quarterbacks are interchangeable. Ridder has a career 45.6% success rate compared to Heinicke’s 45.8% success rate since entering the league in 2017.

· The Falcons are targeting tight ends on a league-high 36.0% of passes but Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts will be contained by S Harrison Smith, who is conceding just 4.8 yards per target.

· Atlanta’s offense is averaging 18% more yards per attempt against the blitz this season than a standard pass rush (8th-largest gap) and Heinicke won’t be phased by a Vikings defense with a league-high 59.7% blitz rate.

· Minnesota’s defense sending extra pass rushers tends to give them trouble against screen passes and the Vikings are surrendering 0.22 EPA/target to running backs (30th). Falcons’ RB Bijan Robinson has a 43% success rate as a receiver (6th) and should have a good game catching balls out of the backfield.

· Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will create chaos across from RT Kaleb McGary, who has surrendered 5 sacks already this year after allowing 6 the entire 2022 season.

· Atlanta’s offense has the 5th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation, but they will be contained on the ground by a Minnesota rush defense ranked 3rd according to our metrics.

· Our model favors Atlanta by 4.1 points, with a predicted total of 34.8 points, and the Falcons apply to a 106-49-5 ATS situation.