Game Analysis

Miami (-9.5) vs WASHINGTON

· Tua Tagovailoa has the two quickest times to throw in a game this year after last week’s average time to throw of 2.17 seconds against a Jets pass rush ranked 4th with a 41.1% pressure rate.

· I expect Mike McDaniel to design longer developing plays on Sunday versus a debilitated Commanders defensive line after they surrendered 15.8 yppp on vertical routes on Thanksgiving.

· Washington’s pass rush might be down to their 5th and 6th options at edge rusher with Efe Obada out for the year following surgery on his broken leg and James Smith-Williams dealing with a hamstring strain. The Commanders traded starters Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline.

· Washington cornerback Kendall Fuller is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (11th) and he will battle with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, whose 61% success rate ranks 4th.

· I expect Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill to get some deep targets. Hill is averaging 0.58 EPA/target (3rd) and he has a league-leading 21 forced missed tackles.

· Miami safety Jevon Holland appeared to injure his knee in the fourth quarter of the last game and he could be out this week. Holland is worth a half point by our metrics.

· The Dolphins will definitely be missing edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who tore his Achilles in this game and is out for the year. Miami LB Andrew Van Ginkel should play a lot more on the edge for the rest of this season with Phillips out and he has been Phillips’ equal as a pass rusher. Van Ginkel has a 16.4% pressure rate compared to Phillips’ 12.6% pressure rate.

· Commanders RB Brian Robinson averaging 1.67 yards per route run (3rd) but he will be shut down as the Dolphins are conceding only a 30% pass success rate to running backs (2nd).

· Our model makes Miami a 9.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.4 points.