Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Miami

Lean – Over (51)

· Given that home-field advantage is now worth less than a field goal in the NFL, particularly in Los Angeles, you have to believe the Chargers are clearly better than the Dolphins to get to this number – and I agree.

· The Chargers finished 3.5 points better than average by our metrics in 2021 and the betting markets had them 3.5 points better than average going into last season. I don’t think we can take much away from the 2022 campaign.

· Justin Herbert suffered a chest fracture in September that he played through and then a torn labrum in January. The Chargers had all of LT Rashawn Slater, C Corey Linsley, WR Keenan Allen, and WR Mike Williams on the field together last season for only 20 snaps. Herbert took just 175 dropbacks last season with both Allen and Williams on the field and he would’ve finished 2nd in success rate only looking at those snaps.

· The Chargers also did not have Pro Bowl edge rusher Joey Bosa and Pro Bowl cornerback JC Jackson for nearly the entirety of last season.

· The Chargers defense now has everyone back healthy and they signed LB Eric Kendricks, who had a down season in 2022 but was 7th in PFF coverage grade in 2021. I expect him to get back on track this year.

· Miami’s offense took the league by storm in head coach Mike McDaniel’s first season. He gave Tua Tagovailoa the option to hand off more than half of dropbacks and then use the speed of his WRs to create passing windows. The Dolphins lead the NFL in motion rate, which was twice the league median. Defenses were so scared to get burned deep by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, that Tagovailoa saw the 2nd-fewest rate of disguised coverage last season making his post-snap reads easier.

· Miami’s offensive line finished 24th in pass block win rate a season ago and really didn’t add much outside of versatile 6th-man Isaiah Wynn. Instead, the Dolphins are gambling on internal development. Miami’s 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson and 2021 second-round pick Liam Eichenberg have been two of the worst linemen in the NFL to start their careers. Jackson only got in two games last season and Miami seems to think he’s made a leap currently slotted in to start at right tackle. Eichenberg was graded as PFF’s second-worst guard in true pass blocking set last year.

· Dolphins C Connor Williams and G Robert Hunt are league average, and they have one of the better left tackles in the league when healthy. LT Terron Armstead allowed just 1 sack in 13 games last year, but he may not be available in week 1. Armstead is worth 0.9 points.

· The last time we saw a new offense take the league by storm was the Ravens in 2019 when Lamar Jackson led all QBs in EPA/play. Then, defensive coordinators had all offseason to find answers and Jackson ranked 13th in EPA/play the next season.

· We already saw Tagovailoa decline going from leading the NFL in EPA/play and success rate until Thanksgiving, then the league started taking away Miami’s deep middle RPOs and Tagovailoa ranked 28th in EPA/play after week 12. Although, some of the drop could be attributed to concussions.

· The Dolphins hired one of the league’s top defensive coordinators Vic Fangio, but the massive trade they made in the offseason, CB Jalen Ramsey, will likely be out until at least December after ranking 9th in PFF coverage grade last year. However, I still think Fangio has enough to work with here. We have Miami’s defensive talent rated above average even without Ramsey.

· The defensive line has the potential to be one of the best in the NFL. Jaelan Phillips was one of 7 edge defenders last year with 70 pressures. Christian Wilkins led all interior defenders by far with 45 run stops and Zach Sieler was 2nd with 34 run stops. Edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah finished back-to-back seasons with 9 sacks before an injury derailed him in 2022 and we’ve seen edge defender Bradley Chubb finish top 15 in pass rushing efficiency with Vic Fangio in 2020.

· At linebacker, the Dolphins brought in David Long, who ranked 4th in PFF run defense grade last season.

· In the secondary, they have perennial Pro Bowler CB Xavien Howard, safety Jevon Holland prime to make a leap like we saw Eddie Jackson and Justin Simmons do in Fangio defenses, and Kader Kohou impressed as an undrafted rookie by ranking 4th in yards allowed per cover snap among nickelbacks.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 3.5 with a predicted total of 53.6.