Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43 -105) – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs Miami

Strong Opinion Prop – Kansas City TE Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-130 odds or less)

· Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle will be back on the field for this game, and he has a 61% success rate (2nd). Waddle provides Miami’s offense an elite secondary option alongside WR Tyreek Hill, who is leads the NFL with 3.82 yards per route run.

· Tua Tagovailoa averaged just 5.8 yppp in the last two weeks without Waddle and he averaged 7.5 yppp in the 14 games with Waddle and Tyreek on the field.

· Tagovailoa has drastic splits based on his protection, particularly targeting toward the sidelines. Tagovailoa has a 52% success rate on throws outside the numbers when kept clean compared to a 31% success rate throwing outside when pressured. I believe Tagovailoa will be kept clean more often than he has been recently on Saturday night.

· Dolphins Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead has missed 6 games due to back and foot injuries but he will start this week. Starting RG Robert Hunt missed two games midseason because of a hamstring injury and then returned only to be sidelined four more games but he will suit up in Kansas City.

· Hunt has conceded only 5 pressures in 314 pass-blocking snaps while backup guard Lester Cotton allowed 20 pressures in 347 pass-blocking snaps. Hunt will limit Chiefs DT Chris Jones, who led interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Kansas City edge defender George Karlaftis has 64 pressures (17th) but he will be shut down by RT Austin Jackson, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Miami’s offense has a 43.5% rush success rate (5th) and I expect head coach Mike McDaniel to attack the Chiefs linebackers as Kansas City’s defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush and can be preyed on by the screen game.

· Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the top run defense in the NFL according to our metrics, and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will put the game on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, who should have time to find his receivers.

· Kansas City’s interior offensive line is responsible for just 34.3% of the pressures (2nd-fewest) and they will shut down interior defender Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins, who rank 16th and 17th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Dolphins will be without edge rushers Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Cameron Goode. Those four combined for 87% of Miami’s edge defender pressures this season and are worth 2.1 points by our numbers.

· Chiefs starting left tackle Donovan Smith will likely suit up for his first game since week 13. Smith is allowing an 8.9% pressure rate compared to backup rookie tackle Wanya Morris surrendering a 10.3% pressure rate.

· Kansas City TE Travis Kelce is averaging 0.40 EPA/target (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup versus a Dolphins defense surrendering a 57% success rate to tight ends (26th). Furthermore, Miami starting LB Jerome Baker is out after wrist surgery, and backup linebacker Duke Riley is surrendering 2.0 yards per target more than Baker.

· Dolphins starting cornerback Xavien Howard will also be sidelined and he is allowing 2.0 yards per target fewer than backup Eli Apple. Baker and Howard are worth 1.5 points to Miami’s coverage by our metrics.

· Saturday’s night’s temperatures are now expected to be close to -10 degrees by the end of this game, which is about 15 degrees colder than what was expected early in the week when this play was released. Wind affects scoring but all studies on temperatures in relation to scoring show no correlation. However, this game is now expected to be played in historically low temperatures – as one of the 5 coldest NFL games ever. The other 4 historically cold games resulted in 2 overs and 2 unders, so it’s still hard to say if extreme cold does have a significantly negative affect on scoring. It’s certainly possible even though very cold weather in general does not have a negative impact on scoring. The wind speed for this game is expected to be 12 to 15 mph, which is negative to scoring – but not much worse than the average for Arrowhead Stadium.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.0 points with a predicted total of 48.0.

1-Star Best Bet Over 44 points or less (Strong Opinion at 44.5).