Game Analysis
Lean – Miami (+9) over CAROLINA
This matchup features two of the worst offenses in the league with neither team averaging above 5 yppl. Both teams have struggled to run the football with Carolina ranking 26th and Miami 29th but they’ve shown signs of improvement recently. The Panthers abandoned Jonathan Stewart after two fumbles last game and the rest of the team ran for 6.7 ypr. The Dolphins averaged 4.8 ypr in their first game since trading Jay Ajayi and second-year back Kenyan Drake has performed well in his short career (5.3 ypr on 52 runs) when he’s had the chance.
On the other side of the ball, I expect to see both teams improve their redzone defense. The Panthers defense is allowing opponent touchdowns on 65% of redzone opportunities (29th) despite only surrendering 4.9 yppl (7th) and I expect Carolina’s redzone defense to be more in line with their overall defensive level of play moving forward, which will improved their points per game allowed numbers. Miami’s defense surrenders a touchdown on 72% of opponent redzone trips, no defense has allowed a rate that high over the course of a full season since 2010 and I expect the Dolphins redzone defense to aso improve as the season progresses. Also, the Dolphins good a boost with the addition of excellent safety TJ McDonald, whose 8 game suspension is over.
The line on this game is a bit high based on our metrics and Miami applies to a 132-60-2 ATS contrary indicator that is based on how much they’ve underperformed so far this season. Miami should be better on both sides of the ball going forward and I’ll lean with the Dolphins plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
32.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.8%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.6%
37.3%
-
NYPP
5.0
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
36.9%
32.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.0%
35.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.7%
60.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
62.0
59.4
-
Early Down Succ
45.0%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.3%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
30.6
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
44.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
28.0
-
Game Control
-5.8
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.1%
42.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
11.4%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.0%
22.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
40.1%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.2
22.2
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.4%
28.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.7%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.3
56.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.9%
47.9%
-
Succ Rate
44.2%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.4%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
28.0
-
Run Ratio
47.4%
40.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
27.8
-
Game Control
1.0
-1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
46.9% /
47.4% |
25.0% /
42.1% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
65 /
55 |
47.9% /
48.8% |
46.2% /
49.1% |
23.8% /
40.1% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
30.2 /
20.7 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% /
36.7% |
7.5% /
10.0% |
5.4% /
3.7% |
7.6 /
6.0 |
24.0% /
34.8% |
44.0% /
30.4% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
65 /
53 |
42.3% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
35.8% |
53.8% /
61.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
38.5% /
43.4% |
31.2 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% /
36.4% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
26.3% /
34.9% |
42.1% /
20.9% |
2.4 /
4.1 |
66 /
65 |
30.6% /
42.6% |
28.8% /
35.4% |
41.3% /
45.0% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
66.2% |
22.2 /
35.3 |
| 9 |
OAK |
24 – 27 L |
-3.2 |
58.1% /
54.8% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.2 /
9.5 |
27.8% /
23.3% |
38.9% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
2.9 |
61 /
61 |
52.1% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
39.3% |
26.8% /
59.7% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
29.5% /
49.2% |
27.1 /
28.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% /
46.2% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
4.2% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
39.0% /
26.7% |
14.6% /
26.7% |
2.9 /
3.4 |
65 /
54 |
42.6% /
48.7% |
41.5% /
40.7% |
29.7% /
33.6% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
63.1% /
27.8% |
33.7 /
30.1 |
| 2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
15.8% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
34.5% /
21.7% |
37.9% /
39.1% |
2.7 /
3.0 |
67 /
51 |
44.9% /
30.6% |
43.3% /
29.4% |
39.1% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
45.1% |
31.3 /
21.1 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% /
46.7% |
10.8% /
3.3% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.1 |
77.3% /
55.6% |
4.5% /
25.9% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
59 /
57 |
57.8% /
51.1% |
55.9% /
50.9% |
40.3% /
55.5% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
47.4% |
25.2 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% /
60.4% |
6.5% /
6.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
6.1 |
51.7% /
73.7% |
20.7% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
60 /
67 |
54.9% /
66.7% |
56.7% /
64.2% |
48.0% /
22.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
48.3% /
28.4% |
26.7 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
8.3% /
14.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
4.7 |
17.6% /
40.0% |
32.4% /
40.0% |
0.9 /
3.3 |
70 /
56 |
37.0% /
52.4% |
34.3% /
48.2% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
26.8% |
31.7 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% /
39.4% |
3.7% /
9.1% |
5.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
48.0% /
37.9% |
40.0% /
27.6% |
3.2 /
3.6 |
79 /
62 |
45.0% /
41.9% |
40.5% /
38.7% |
20.7% /
54.2% |
3.9 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.6% /
46.8% |
30.0 /
32.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
3 – 17 L |
-11.4 |
41.0% /
18.2% |
12.8% /
36.4% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.7 |
33.3% /
32.3% |
33.3% /
16.1% |
3.6 /
2.3 |
69 /
42 |
37.7% /
41.7% |
37.7% /
28.6% |
49.8% /
67.3% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
73.8% |
24.6 /
28.7 |
| 8 |
@TB |
17 – 3 W |
7.2 |
37.5% /
36.6% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
5.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
45.5% /
45.5% |
24.2% /
31.8% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
65 /
63 |
43.2% /
46.0% |
41.5% /
39.7% |
30.5% /
19.4% |
3.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.8% /
34.9% |
30.6 /
23.2 |
| 9 |
ATL |
20 – 17 W |
0.4 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
4.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
36.8% |
21.1% /
26.3% |
5.3 /
2.8 |
63 /
59 |
50.0% /
52.4% |
46.0% /
44.1% |
43.3% /
39.6% |
5.2 /
6.0 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
60.3% /
32.2% |
35.8 /
20.5 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
Carolina Panthers