Game Analysis

Lean – Under (47) – BALTIMORE (-3) vs Miami

· Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle will miss this game with an ankle sprain. Waddle has a 61% success rate (3rd) and is worth 0.8 points according to our numbers.

· Miami WR Tyreek Hill could completely envelop the offense on Sunday as the All-Pro is averaging 5.15 yards per route run with Waddle off the field this year.

· It will be a matter of whether Tua Tagovailoa can be kept clean to throw Hill the ball downfield. The Dolphins do not have a single starter remaining on the interior offensive line and Baltimore interior defender Justin Madubuike ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Miami’s offense did have starting LT Terron Armstead on the field for all plays for the first game since week 11 and starting RT Austin Jackson is likely back as well for this game. Jackson ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain Ravens edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, who has 66 pressures (12th).

· The Dolphins averaged 0.15 EPA/play more in 21 personnel with FB Alec Ingold on the field in the win versus the Cowboys last week than they did in 11 personnel.

· The heavy 21 personnel makes it vital for Baltimore’s defense to have S Kyle Hamilton available as he is stout against the run while maintaining sound coverage. Opponents have a 39.2% pass success rate versus the Ravens’ defense with Hamilton on the field this season and a 47.7% pass success rate with Hamilton off the field.

· Baltimore CB Marlon Humphrey is conceding 0.66 yards per cover snap (6th) and he will battle with Hill along with Hamilton.

· Miami’s defense is much improved in the second half of the season with CB Jalen Ramsey, who is allowing only 0.61 yards per cover snap (5th). The Dolphins are allowing -0.13 EPA/dropback since week 8 (3rd).

· However, Lamar Jackson might have to throw to win as Miami has the best run defense in the NFL by our metrics and the Ravens have some edges in the passing game.

· Dolphins’ interior defenders Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler rank 15th and 18th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency but they will be shut down as Baltimore’s interior offensive line has only conceded 35.4% of the pressures (2nd-fewest).

· Ravens TE Mark Andrews led tight ends with a 65% success rate before he suffered a reported cracked fibula and ankle ligament injury. TE Isaiah Likely is averaging 1.47 yards per route run since taking over as Baltimore’s starter in week 11 and he has a favorable matchup as Miami’s defense is allowing a 56% success rate to tight ends (25th).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points, but Miami applies to a 90-159-5 ATS situation while Baltimore applies to a 96-39-2 ATS late season home after 2 road games angle.