Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (43.5) – BALTIMORE (-3.5) vs Miami

· This OU closed 46.5 when these teams met last November with Jacoby Brissett at the helm for Miami’s offense. I don’t think the changes we’ve seen for these two teams since then warrant the lower total.

· New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel showed some aggressiveness we don’t see from his former boss Kyle Shanahan. McDaniel called the highest pass rate over expected in week 1 and went for it on 4th-and-7 at midfield which led to a touchdown right before halftime. Tua Tagovailoa gained 6.7 yppp in his first game with McDaniel.

· Ravens CB Marcus Peters may return to the field this week but starting CB Kyle Fuller tore his ACL against the Jets meaning we will see plenty of Brandon Stephens in coverage again. Stephens surrendered 12.0 yards per target last season. Tyreek Hill had 94 yards in his first game with his new team and he will have a favorable matchup when lined up across from Stephens.

· Baltimore interior defender Justin Madubuike had five pressures and edge defender Justin Houston had six pressures versus the Jets, but the Dolphins shored up the offensive line this offseason. New LT Terron Armstead and new center Connor Williams only conceded one pressure each last Sunday. Armstead and Williams will protect against the threat of Madubuike and Houston. 

· Miami’s defense remains vulnerable without CB Byron Jones (11 forced incompletions last year). Jones is out to start the season after getting surgery on his left Achilles tendon in March and our metrics have him valued at a half point. 

· New England’s 7 points were misleading as the Patriots drove into Dolphins’ territory on 8 of their 10 possessions. 

· CB Nik Needham was out of position with Byron Jones sidelined and he surrendered 96 receiving yards. Lamar Jackson had a league-high 8 pass attempts with at least 20 air yards, and it seems like the Ravens are not abandoning the downfield shots after trading away WR Marquise Brown. Devin Duvernay caught two deep TDs last week and he will look to do the same versus Needham.

· Baltimore’s tight ends accounted for a league-high 37.9% target share last week. Miami’s defense surrendered 8.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends last season (31st).

· Jackson also might have more stable pockets to throw from on Sunday with LT Ronnie Stanley back on the practice field. Stanley led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency his last fully healthy season in 2019.

· Our model has the Ravens by 2.4 with a predicted total of 50.0.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 44.5 points or less.