Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **NY GIANTS (+5.5) over LA Rams to +5

· The market is not encapsulating the upgrade Tyrod Taylor is over New York’s passing offense this season. The Giants are last in the NFL averaging 4.4 yppp but Taylor is averaging 5.7 yppp in 2023 and has averaged 5.8 yppp over his 13 year career.

· Taylor is also underrated as a caretaker of the football. Taylor had a league-low 1.0% interception rate in his last full season as a starter and his career 1.6% interception rate is the 3rd lowest in NFL history (Aaron Rodgers is best at 1.4%).

· New York’s offense has also upgraded at wide receiver as Darius Slayton has gotten over 90% of the snaps in three consecutive games after only doing so once for the Giants in the first 12 weeks. Slayton is averaging 0.39 EPA/target (16th).

· Rams DT Aaron Donald leads all interior defenders with 77 pressures, and he should have a field day against a Giants’ interior offensive line that has been at fault for 57.4% of the pressures (7th-most).

· Giants head coach Brian Daboll is a master at designing zone beaters. New York’s yards per attempt versus zone is 26% more than their yards per attempt against man coverage (7th-largest gap) and Daboll has a favorable matchup versus a Rams defense with an 83.4% zone rate (5th-highest).

· Sean McVay’s offense against man-coverage is averaging only 69% of their yards per attempt versus zone (31st) and Matthew Stafford will struggle against a Giants defense with a 37.8% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· Los Angeles C Coleman Shelton ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency and doesn’t have a prayer versus interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who has 60 pressures (3rd).

· Our model favors the Rams by just 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and the Giants apply to a 96-39-2 ATS late-season home team off 2 road games situation that is 34-4 ATS when applying to a home dog of 4 points or more.

· The line is inflated because the Rams are fighting for a playoff spot and the Giants are eliminated but teams out of the playoffs contention cover the spread a profitable percentage of the time the last two weeks of the season against teams fighting for a spot in the post-season.

The Giants are a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and 1-Star down to +4.