Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

GREEN BAY (-6.5) vs LA Rams

Player Props

Davante Adams Under 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110 odds) good to -130 odds

Deep passes accounted for 29% of Aaron Rodgers’ yards this season but Los Angeles is conceding a league-low 10% of pass plays that go for 15+ yards. The Rams pass defense was 2.1 points better than average by our metrics and it’s no secret that slowing down Davante Adams will be emphasized. Adams led the NFL averaging 2.96 yards per route run but he will line up across from CB Jalen Ramsey, who allowed only 0.53 yards per cover snap, the lowest mark in the league. We saw Ramsey’s effectiveness in shadow coverage last week against DK Metcalf, who averaged 6.5 yards per target guarded by Ramsey in three games compared to 10.5 yards per target against all other defenders this year. Ramsey also held Mike Evans to just 40 yards from 7 targets in shadow coverage. I do not expect Ramsey to face Adams on every route, but I do believe defensive coordinator Brandon Staley will use extra resources to limit the All-Pro wide receiver when Ramsey is on the other side of the field. Staley will also likely utilize zone on nearly every passing snap and Adams’ target share is 27% versus zone compared to 36% against man coverage.

Green Bay’s offensive line led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency but All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari tore his ACL in week 16. They started Billy Turner at left tackle in Bakhtiari’s place and put Rick Wagner at right tackle in week 17. However, Wagner is currently banged-up with a knee injury and the Packers might not be confident in his ability to play every snap as they just recently signed tackle Jared Veldheer off the Indianapolis practice squad. Los Angeles pressured Russell Wilson on 13 of his 24 dropbacks last week while registering three sacks, and the Rams boast a league leading 51% pressure rate since week 14. Green Bay’s interior offensive line is surrendering only 2.4 pressures per game, so they should put up some resistance against All-Pro DT Aaron Donald. Other elite interior defenders Grady Jarrett, Ndamukong Suh, DeForest Buckner, and Akiem Hicks (twice) combined for only one sack against the Packers in five games. Aaron Donald is nursing a ribs injury but is on track to be in the lineup this week.

Jared Goff was coming off thumb surgery last week and completed just three passes with 10+ air yards – and one of those passes hauled in by Cooper Kupp for 44 yards was very underthrown and could’ve just as easily been intercepted. Goff would’ve averaged just 4.6 yards per pass play against the Seahawks had that pass fallen incomplete. The Rams ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency with Andrew Whitworth starting at left tackle for the first 10 weeks of the year but then ranked 18th down the stretch with Whitworth on the sideline. Whitworth returned to the lineup last week but surrendered 5 pressures in only 29 pass blocking snaps and his knee injury could still be bothering him. Backup guard Bobby Evans surrendered a 12.5% pressure rate last week filling in for LG David Edwards, who is battling an ankle injury and might miss the game on Saturday.

Our model favors the Packers by 7.0 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points. I think the matchup favors the Rams a bit but Green Bay applies to a 20-3-2 ATS playoff home team off a bye situation. If I had to play this game I’d rather be on the Packers at -6.5 or less. But, I don’t have to play this game and I won’t.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Packers

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.8 37.2
Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 42.7%
Sack Rate 4.6% 9.4%
Int Rate 2.2% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 14.8% 16.0%
Big Pass Yards 37.4% 35.0%
NYPP 6.6 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 30.4 24.3
RB YPR 4.2 3.6
Stuff Rate 23.0% 18.4%
Succ Rush Plays 48.9% 47.3%
Big Rush Yards 44.4% 30.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.8

Game

All Snaps 68.2 61.5
Early Down Succ 52.9% 48.0%
Succ Rate 49.7% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 39.2% 33.0%
Yards Per Play 5.5 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 27.3
Run Ratio 44.7% 39.5%
Starting Field Pos 27.8 29.4
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 23.6 18.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	20 – 17 W	3.4	56.3% / 52.4%	3.1% / 7.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.8	57.5% / 59.3%	12.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 5.0	72 / 69	57.7% / 63.0%	56.9% / 55.1%	40.3% / 30.8%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 39.1%	29.0 / 27.1
2	@PHI	37 – 19 W	9.4	67.9% / 46.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.2 / 5.6	59.0% / 73.1%	12.8% / 0.0%	4.9 / 4.7	67 / 69	65.4% / 57.1%	62.7% / 56.5%	52.8% / 17.1%	6.7 / 5.3	1.5% / 1.4%	58.2% / 37.7%	31.6 / 29.1
3	@BUF	32 – 35 L	-8.9	58.8% / 56.8%	5.9% / 10.8%	3.1% / 3.0%	9.1 / 7.4	68.8% / 61.9%	18.8% / 14.3%	5.2 / 4.8	66 / 58	65.5% / 59.6%	63.6% / 58.6%	48.3% / 57.1%	7.2 / 6.5	1.5% / 1.7%	48.5% / 36.2%	27.0 / 32.9
4	NYG	17 – 9 W	4.1	50.0% / 41.5%	5.9% / 12.2%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.4 / 3.9	47.8% / 56.0%	17.4% / 12.0%	2.5 / 5.4	57 / 66	53.7% / 51.0%	49.1% / 47.0%	28.3% / 34.9%	4.2 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	40.4% / 37.9%	23.6 / 31.0
5	@WAS	30 – 10 W	9.8	48.4% / 26.3%	3.2% / 21.1%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.7 / 1.8	40.0% / 42.9%	28.6% / 35.7%	3.7 / 2.7	66 / 52	46.9% / 36.8%	43.9% / 30.8%	59.4% / 0.0%	6.5 / 2.1	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 26.9%	31.0 / 22.6
6	@SF	16 – 24 L	-10.5	42.1% / 57.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 8.1	63.2% / 37.8%	26.3% / 18.9%	5.9 / 3.3	57 / 70	54.5% / 50.0%	49.1% / 47.1%	43.1% / 33.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 52.9%	26.4 / 22.3
7	CHI	24 – 10 W	9.2	52.9% / 40.9%	2.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.2 / 5.2	44.1% / 29.4%	29.4% / 17.6%	4.7 / 2.9	68 / 61	54.7% / 41.9%	48.5% / 37.7%	41.2% / 32.6%	5.5 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	50.0% / 27.9%	34.4 / 16.3
8	@MIA	17 – 28 L	-9.2	46.0% / 43.5%	3.2% / 4.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.9	65.5% / 40.0%	13.8% / 24.0%	4.5 / 2.2	92 / 48	56.2% / 48.6%	52.2% / 41.7%	21.0% / 0.0%	5.1 / 3.0	2.2% / 4.2%	31.5% / 52.1%	28.2 / 34.6
10	SEA	23 – 16 W	5.6	52.5% / 44.2%	7.5% / 14.0%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.1 / 5.1	55.2% / 45.5%	20.7% / 9.1%	3.7 / 5.1	69 / 65	52.9% / 43.1%	53.6% / 44.6%	35.2% / 40.5%	5.6 / 5.1	1.4% / 1.5%	42.0% / 33.8%	29.0 / 28.1
11	@TB	27 – 24 W	2.4	60.8% / 42.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	3.9% / 4.2%	7.4 / 4.3	20.0% / 44.4%	50.0% / 22.2%	1.9 / 2.3	71 / 67	49.1% / 42.3%	49.3% / 43.3%	34.9% / 0.0%	5.8 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	28.2% / 26.9%	29.3 / 32.4
12	SF	20 – 23 L	-3.4	57.6% / 43.2%	6.1% / 5.4%	6.5% / 2.9%	5.5 / 6.3	53.6% / 45.5%	25.0% / 24.2%	4.5 / 3.5	61 / 70	63.8% / 49.1%	55.7% / 44.3%	40.3% / 56.6%	5.0 / 5.0	3.3% / 2.9%	45.9% / 47.1%	26.9 / 28.1
13	@ARI	38 – 28 W	2.4	64.6% / 41.5%	2.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	7.2 / 3.4	51.6% / 47.6%	16.1% / 33.3%	3.8 / 4.4	79 / 62	62.7% / 44.7%	59.5% / 43.5%	31.3% / 47.4%	5.9 / 3.7	1.3% / 1.6%	39.2% / 33.9%	35.0 / 32.1
14	NE	24 – 3 W	15.2	34.6% / 27.6%	3.8% / 20.7%	4.0% / 4.3%	5.1 / 3.9	44.4% / 44.8%	19.4% / 13.8%	5.2 / 3.7	62 / 58	44.4% / 43.9%	40.3% / 36.2%	40.9% / 44.5%	5.1 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	58.1% / 50.0%	19.3 / 37.3
15	NYJ	20 – 23 L	-7.9	40.5% / 45.5%	8.1% / 6.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.1 / 5.9	47.4% / 45.2%	21.1% / 16.1%	6.0 / 3.0	56 / 64	50.0% / 47.7%	42.9% / 45.3%	31.4% / 27.3%	5.4 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	33.9% / 48.4%	29.5 / 35.0
16	@SEA	9 – 20 L	-1.9	43.5% / 45.9%	6.5% / 13.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	4.7 / 5.3	27.6% / 45.8%	20.7% / 16.7%	4.1 / 4.0	75 / 61	35.2% / 46.5%	37.3% / 45.9%	29.0% / 36.0%	4.5 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 39.3%	21.4 / 30.8
17	ARI	18 – 7 W	0.0	35.0% / 41.9%	5.0% / 12.9%	2.6% / 3.7%	5.6 / 5.4	36.7% / 33.3%	36.7% / 27.8%	3.7 / 2.7	70 / 49	33.3% / 43.6%	35.7% / 38.8%	45.3% / 40.2%	4.8 / 4.4	1.4% / 0.0%	42.9% / 36.7%	21.3 / 28.7
18	@SEA	30 – 20 W	6.0	35.7% / 28.1%	10.7% / 15.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	6.0 / 4.4	48.8% / 52.0%	20.9% / 16.0%	3.8 / 5.4	71 / 57	53.8% / 46.3%	43.7% / 38.6%	42.9% / 63.7%	4.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.8%	60.6% / 43.9%	30.3 / 30.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	43 – 34 W	6.6	56.8% / 59.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	0.0% / 4.0%	8.3 / 9.2	65.6% / 72.7%	6.3% / 9.1%	4.9 / 6.1	76 / 49	63.9% / 69.0%	60.5% / 65.3%	48.5% / 51.8%	6.9 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 44.9%	33.6 / 22.8
2	DET	42 – 21 W	5.7	54.8% / 45.9%	3.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.4 / 5.9	57.1% / 61.9%	8.6% / 14.3%	7.4 / 4.2	66 / 58	58.8% / 53.3%	56.1% / 51.7%	58.2% / 37.1%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 36.2%	28.0 / 20.0
3	@NO	37 – 30 W	1.6	54.5% / 50.0%	3.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.2	50.0% / 50.0%	26.9% / 15.0%	3.8 / 6.1	59 / 58	55.6% / 51.1%	52.5% / 50.0%	50.9% / 33.2%	6.3 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	44.1% / 34.5%	33.9 / 28.9
4	ATL	30 – 16 W	10.5	61.8% / 53.5%	2.9% / 9.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 5.8	34.6% / 48.0%	34.6% / 24.0%	3.4 / 3.1	60 / 68	50.0% / 57.7%	50.0% / 51.5%	46.2% / 10.4%	6.7 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 36.8%	32.6 / 23.4
6	@TB	10 – 38 L	-13.0	35.0% / 46.4%	12.5% / 0.0%	5.7% / 0.0%	2.7 / 5.9	38.1% / 45.7%	42.9% / 8.6%	4.5 / 4.5	61 / 63	34.1% / 49.0%	36.1% / 46.0%	32.3% / 42.3%	3.3 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 55.6%	23.6 / 32.9
7	@HOU	35 – 20 W	14.2	58.8% / 59.5%	0.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 6.8	59.3% / 36.4%	22.2% / 27.3%	3.6 / 3.6	61 / 64	61.7% / 55.1%	59.0% / 51.6%	40.4% / 29.9%	6.2 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	44.3% / 34.4%	26.1 / 30.8
8	MIN	22 – 28 L	-3.6	52.4% / 60.0%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 10.1	58.3% / 55.9%	8.3% / 20.6%	4.5 / 5.1	66 / 49	57.1% / 57.5%	54.5% / 57.1%	27.0% / 42.3%	6.1 / 6.6	1.5% / 0.0%	36.4% / 69.4%	27.8 / 24.6
9	@SF	34 – 17 W	15.7	53.1% / 41.7%	3.1% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	9.2 / 7.8	41.9% / 52.9%	19.4% / 23.5%	3.6 / 3.2	63 / 53	46.9% / 50.0%	47.6% / 45.3%	53.6% / 52.8%	6.4 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.9%	49.2% / 32.1%	27.5 / 27.3
10	JAC	24 – 20 W	0.5	51.4% / 39.5%	2.9% / 7.9%	2.9% / 2.9%	9.0 / 4.0	44.0% / 47.8%	24.0% / 8.7%	3.2 / 4.7	60 / 61	54.5% / 46.8%	48.3% / 42.6%	49.6% / 23.8%	6.6 / 4.3	1.7% / 0.0%	41.7% / 37.7%	24.7 / 34.1
11	@IND	31 – 34 L	5.0	53.8% / 51.4%	2.6% / 2.7%	2.6% / 2.8%	7.7 / 7.6	72.2% / 45.9%	16.7% / 32.4%	3.7 / 3.8	57 / 74	68.2% / 48.2%	59.6% / 48.6%	44.4% / 37.9%	6.4 / 5.7	5.3% / 1.4%	31.6% / 50.0%	28.6 / 41.6
12	CHI	41 – 25 W	15.1	62.1% / 49.0%	0.0% / 6.1%	0.0% / 4.3%	7.3 / 4.7	51.3% / 56.3%	12.8% / 18.8%	4.7 / 7.6	68 / 65	55.8% / 51.9%	55.9% / 50.8%	39.2% / 27.9%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.5%	57.4% / 24.6%	31.3 / 24.4
13	PHI	30 – 16 W	7.3	52.8% / 29.4%	5.6% / 20.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	8.0 / 4.7	40.0% / 52.0%	12.0% / 28.0%	6.0 / 4.7	61 / 59	50.0% / 40.0%	47.5% / 39.0%	57.9% / 66.2%	7.2 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 42.4%	19.4 / 26.8
14	@DET	31 – 24 W	4.7	63.6% / 45.5%	0.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.8 / 5.5	61.3% / 66.7%	9.7% / 6.7%	3.9 / 3.4	64 / 59	62.7% / 52.1%	62.5% / 50.8%	28.5% / 26.6%	6.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 25.4%	28.1 / 27.5
15	CAR	24 – 16 W	10.6	38.2% / 36.8%	14.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.8 / 6.6	66.7% / 55.6%	3.7% / 11.1%	7.2 / 4.3	61 / 65	54.2% / 47.1%	50.8% / 44.6%	41.2% / 39.6%	4.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.5%	44.3% / 41.5%	31.1 / 25.7
16	TEN	40 – 14 W	13.6	73.1% / 39.3%	3.8% / 7.1%	4.0% / 7.7%	8.2 / 3.7	54.1% / 44.4%	18.9% / 7.4%	6.3 / 5.8	63 / 55	66.7% / 39.5%	61.9% / 41.8%	54.0% / 54.2%	7.1 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 49.1%	31.8 / 29.8
17	@CHI	35 – 16 W	4.0	72.0% / 53.5%	4.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.5 / 5.8	52.6% / 58.1%	15.8% / 16.1%	4.2 / 3.5	44 / 74	64.9% / 56.6%	63.6% / 55.4%	30.4% / 25.0%	7.2 / 4.8	2.3% / 1.4%	43.2% / 41.9%	38.7 / 31.0

Los Angeles Rams @

Green Bay Packers

Sat, Jan 16

1:35 PM Pacific

Game Analysis