Game Analysis

DETROIT (-3) vs LA Rams

Strong Opinion – D. Robinson (LA Rams) Over 45 Receiving Yards at 47 or less

· The Rams are 7-1 since the bye week and it makes sense that they would get better in the second half of the season considering they are starting 8 rookies/second-year players.

· The only loss Los Angeles had since week 10 was overtime in Baltimore. The Rams are averaging 29.3 points per game since the bye excluding last week with Carson Wentz at quarterback.

· Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams leads the league with 95.3 yards on the ground but he will be limited by a Lions defense conceding -0.17 EPA/rush (4th).

· Sean McVay will depend on Matthew Stafford, who should be kept clean on Sunday. The Rams’ offensive line allowed 206 pressures this year but 50 of them came in two games and they rank 4th in pass blocking efficiency since the bye week.

· Detroit edge defender Aidan Hutchinson was the 5th player since 2006 to have at least 100 pressures but he will be limited by the Rams’ top offensive lineman RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Lions defense got back last week starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson and starting interior defender Alim McNeill, who ranked 2nd on Detroit’s defense with 34 pressures this season despite missing four games.

· Detroit’s offense averaged 5.9 yppl this season (3rd) and it jumped to 6.5 yppl for the 46.9% of snaps with the current offensive line combination.

· However, I am concerned about Jared Goff’s protection in this game. Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner’s 131 pressures were the most by an interior tandem in the NFL and neither Lions guard Graham Glasgow nor Jonah Jackson was above average in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Detroit TE Sam LaPorta had a 58.3% success rate (5th) but he is likely out and worth 0.8 points by our metrics.

· The Lions could also be without starting WR Kalif Raymond, who averaged 2.07 yards per route run while Detroit wide receivers Jameson Williams and Donovan Peoples-Jones combined to average just 0.96 yards per route run.

· Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 59% success rate (4th) and he will battle on the inside with Los Angeles nickelback Quentin Lake, who is conceding only 0.86 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).

· I do not expect many takeaways in this game as the Rams had a 2.5% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (4th-lowest) and the Lions had a 2.6% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (5th-lowest). However, the elephant in the room is Sean McVay’s familiarity with Jared Goff’s deficiencies. McVay will likely be more involved in the defensive game planning this week to make sure Goff gets looks that make him uncomfortable.

· Our model makes Detroit a 3.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 53.3 points. There are reasons to bet both teams, as the model leans slightly with Detroit while the matchups favor the Rams.