Game Analysis

LA Rams (-2.5) vs ARIZONA

· The Rams offensive line ranks 25th in pass blocking efficiency but Matthew Stafford has been crushing in clean pockets and the Cardinals only have a 30.6% pressure rate (29th). Stafford is one of 7 quarterbacks averaging 8 yppp when kept clean this season.

· Los Angeles’ yards per attempt versus zone is 39% higher than their yards per attempt against man coverage (5th-largest gap) and Sean McVay’s offense will have a favorable matchup against Arizona’s defense with an 82.9% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Puka Nacua is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (11th) and he will be devastating across from CB Marco Wilson, who is surrendering 1.99 yards per cover snap, which ranks 85th out of 86 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Cardinals nickelback Jalen Thompson is conceding 0.75 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and he will battle on the inside against WR Cooper Kupp, whose 1.84 yards per route run in the slot since week 5 when his season started ranks 7th.

· McVay will have his starting RB Kyren Williams back on the field this week. Williams is averaging 0.8 more yards per rush than the Rams as a whole and Arizona’s defense is allowing a 42.6% rush success rate (26th).

· Kyler Murray has looked like his usual self in his two starts, averaging 6.5 yards per carry and forcing 0.23 missed tackles per rush. The Cardinals’ offense has a 46.3% success rate the last two weeks with Murray under center (6th).

· Arizona’s yards per attempt against the blitz is 16% higher than their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush and they have a favorable matchup as Los Angeles has a 38.2% blitz rate (7th-highest).

· The Rams are surrendering a 60% success rate to tight ends (27th) and they will struggle against TE Trey McBride, who is averaging 2.17 yards per route run (3rd).

· Our model favors the Rams by 2.9 with a predicted total of 44.8 points.