Los Angeles Chargers @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 4
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA Chargers (+7) over TAMPA BAY

The Chargers went from a 3% target share to running backs with Tyrod Taylor under center to 25% over the past two weeks with Justin Herbert. Lavonte David is still one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL with 12.4 coverage snaps per reception allowed (8th) and he should limit Austin Ekler receiving out of the backfield.

When the rookie is not dumping the ball off to a back he’s focused on top receiver Keenan Allen, who has a 35.5% target share over the past two weeks with Herbert. Sean Murphy-Bunting’s status will be worth monitoring for Sunday, as the nickelback is surrendering just 0.87 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and should neutralize Allen if he can suit up. Otherwise, Allen could have another productive afternoon. Mike Williams is banged-up with a hamstring injury and likely will struggle versus CB Carlton Davis, allowing only 0.75 yards per cover snap (11th).

Todd Bowles’ defense did a good job pressuring Denver’s quarterbacks on 16 occasions last week. With C Mike Pouncey, RG Trai Turner, and RT Bryan Bulaga getting hurt, the Chargers’ offensive line is once again facing extreme injury issues. Both Vita Vea and Shaquil Barrett have pass-rush win rates over 20% and should feast on Sunday.

The Chargers will also be without Chris Harris, one of the best nickelbacks in the NFL, but the Buccaneers lost slot receiver Chris Godwin to a hamstring injury. Tom Brady will likely be looking downfield without Godwin as a security blanket underneath. Under Bruce Arians, 37% of Brady’s passing yards are from deep completions (20+ air yards).

Tampa’s rookie RT Tristan Wirfs is conceding only a 5.9% pressure rate on his true pass sets so far this season (21st) against difficult competition (Cam Jordan, Bradley Chubb, etc). It won’t get any easier for Wirfs this week across from the NFL leader in pass-rushing efficiency, Joey Bosa.

Our model makes Tampa Bay a 7.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 44.1 points, but the Buccaneers apply to a 46-129-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation based on their 2-game win streak while underdogs that are coming off a straight-up loss as favorites of more than 6 points the previous week are profitable 176-109-10 ATS in the NFL since 1980. While the Chargers consistently find ways to lose close games when favored they are also 50-22-4 ATS as a road underdog going back to 2004, including 9-5-1 ATS under head coach Anthony Lynn. I’ll lean with the Chargers to bounce-back from that upset loss to Carolina by keeping this one close.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Buccaneers


  • Pass Plays 39.3 39.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.3% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 0.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.0% 11.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.1% 24.5%
  • NYPP 7.1 5.9


  • Rush Plays 35.3 23.7
  • RB YPR 4.5 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 17.2% 21.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.2% 46.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.5% 46.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.6


  • All Snaps 74.7 62.7
  • Early Down Succ 52.6% 47.9%
  • Succ Rate 51.0% 45.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.3% 32.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.8 28.5
  • Run Ratio 47.2% 38.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.1 31.2
  • Game Control -1.1 1.1
  • Points 17.3 19.0
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