Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – SEATTLE (-1) over LA Chargers

Seattle’s offense has gone through a transformation as Russell Wilson leads the NFL utilizing play-action on 44% of his passes since week 5 after just a 17% play-action rate in the first 4 games. Consequently, the Seahawks have gained 6.6 yards per play in their last three games after starting the season averaging only 5.0 yards per play. Seattle’s offensive line has improved ranking 6th in pass blocking efficiency after finishing 26th a season ago and I expect Wilson to continue finding success downfield if they stick with the play-action.

Still, with all the optimism in the improved passing game, the Seahawks remain the only team in the league running the ball on more than half their plays, which isn’t a recipe for success in the modern NFL. Also, Seattle is targeting tight ends on 22% of passes (7th-most), which likely won’t work versus a Chargers defense surrendering just 6.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th) in large part due to the play of rookie safety Derwin James, who’s been excellent this season allowing only 22 yards and 2 first downs from 9 targets where he was in primary coverage of a tight end and adding an interception as well.

The Chargers offense is powered by the elusiveness of its running backs as Melvin Gordon has 23 avoided tackles on rushes (4th) and leads the 6th-rated ground game in our metrics while Austin Ekler averages 2.65 yards per route run (2nd) with 9 forced missed tackles on receptions. However, if there was one player that could bring these Chargers running backs down, it would be Bobby Wagner, who leads the NFL in tackling efficiency again this year and has just 3 missed tackles in 172 attempts since the start of last season.

Our model picks this game even with the Chargers coming off a bye but Seattle applies to an 82-25-1 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll lean with Seattle -1 or better.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Seahawks

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.3 35.9
Succ Pass Plays 55.8% 51.6%
Sack Rate 4.8% 7.1%
Int Rate 1.3% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 48.3% 53.4%
NYPP 9.1 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.9 24.9
RB YPR 4.7 4.1
Stuff Rate 23.3% 24.5%
Succ Rush Plays 44.8% 52.4%
Big Rush Yards 56.5% 38.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.2

Game

All Snaps 59.1 60.7
Early Down Succ 54.3% 51.6%
Succ Rate 50.1% 52.0%
Big Yards Rate 52.5% 51.4%
Yards Per Play 6.9 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.6 29.5
Run Ratio 45.7% 40.6%
Starting Field Pos 31.3 26.3
Game Control 3.2 -3.2

Points 27.9 23.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	28 – 38 L	-9.6	55.8% / 46.4%	1.9% / 3.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 9.1	59.1% / 59.3%	18.2% / 25.9%	5.6 / 3.9	74 / 55	61.3% / 55.6%	56.8% / 52.7%	45.1% / 66.0%	7.3 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	29.7% / 49.1%	20.1 / 29.1
2	@BUF	31 – 20 W	14.5	65.5% / 36.8%	6.9% / 13.2%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.3 / 5.5	33.3% / 54.5%	40.7% / 31.8%	4.1 / 3.8	56 / 60	55.6% / 45.7%	50.0% / 43.3%	44.0% / 59.0%	6.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.2% / 36.7%	36.5 / 26.7
3	@LA	23 – 35 L	-9.0	40.6% / 59.5%	6.3% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.7 / 9.5	60.0% / 62.2%	30.0% / 10.8%	7.1 / 4.7	52 / 74	45.9% / 62.7%	48.1% / 60.8%	62.9% / 45.5%	6.8 / 7.1	3.8% / 1.4%	38.5% / 50.0%	26.6 / 22.8
4	SF	29 – 27 W	-2.8	47.5% / 52.6%	2.5% / 2.6%	2.6% / 5.4%	6.1 / 7.6	35.5% / 38.1%	12.9% / 28.6%	4.2 / 3.6	71 / 59	50.0% / 48.9%	42.3% / 47.5%	47.4% / 46.4%	5.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 35.6%	41.3 / 22.5
5	OAK	26 – 10 W	9.9	78.3% / 68.0%	4.3% / 12.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	14.5 / 9.9	27.3% / 61.5%	30.3% / 23.1%	2.5 / 3.2	56 / 38	45.5% / 55.6%	48.2% / 65.8%	43.4% / 59.5%	7.4 / 7.6	0.0% / 2.6%	58.9% / 34.2%	35.3 / 21.2
6	@CLE	38 – 14 W	14.7	45.5% / 39.2%	4.5% / 9.8%	4.8% / 4.3%	9.2 / 4.2	63.2% / 42.9%	13.2% / 33.3%	6.5 / 4.9	60 / 72	68.8% / 41.5%	56.7% / 40.3%	69.2% / 50.2%	7.5 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	63.3% / 29.2%	30.5 / 34.2
7	TEN	20 – 19 W	4.9	57.1% / 58.8%	7.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	10.6 / 6.6	35.3% / 48.5%	17.6% / 18.2%	2.8 / 5.0	45 / 67	52.9% / 51.0%	48.9% / 53.7%	55.4% / 33.1%	7.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	37.8% / 49.3%	29.0 / 27.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	24 – 27 L	-1.9	35.9% / 57.5%	15.4% / 2.5%	6.1% / 7.7%	6.2 / 8.1	18.8% / 50.0%	25.0% / 21.9%	4.0 / 4.6	55 / 72	34.9% / 58.3%	30.9% / 54.2%	63.7% / 53.2%	5.6 / 6.5	1.8% / 0.0%	29.1% / 44.4%	27.4 / 26.6
2	@CHI	17 – 24 L	-7.4	43.6% / 52.8%	15.4% / 5.6%	3.0% / 5.9%	5.2 / 5.1	45.5% / 48.3%	13.6% / 13.8%	3.4 / 3.0	61 / 65	44.9% / 55.1%	44.3% / 50.8%	23.2% / 6.3%	4.5 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	36.1% / 44.6%	24.5 / 33.6
3	DAL	24 – 13 W	8.3	42.9% / 28.2%	7.1% / 12.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.5 / 3.5	30.0% / 52.6%	30.0% / 15.8%	2.9 / 8.7	68 / 58	34.0% / 39.5%	35.3% / 36.2%	34.8% / 51.2%	4.4 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.7%	58.8% / 32.8%	27.2 / 25.9
4	@ARI	20 – 17 W	2.0	48.1% / 42.9%	7.4% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.1	50.0% / 39.3%	23.5% / 35.7%	5.0 / 3.3	61 / 56	58.0% / 40.9%	49.2% / 41.1%	35.6% / 54.0%	5.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.8%	55.7% / 50.0%	35.5 / 26.4
5	LA	31 – 33 L	1.0	60.0% / 83.3%	13.3% / 4.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	12.2 / 13.0	53.1% / 40.6%	18.8% / 15.6%	5.9 / 4.9	47 / 56	44.2% / 56.9%	55.3% / 58.9%	66.5% / 49.1%	7.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	68.1% / 57.1%	26.6 / 33.7
6	@OAK	27 – 3 W	15.9	50.0% / 37.8%	4.2% / 16.2%	4.3% / 0.0%	8.9 / 2.9	46.2% / 52.6%	15.4% / 15.8%	4.0 / 4.2	63 / 56	45.7% / 46.5%	47.6% / 42.9%	46.9% / 31.9%	5.9 / 3.3	0.0% / 3.6%	61.9% / 33.9%	42.2 / 20.5
8	@DET	28 – 14 W	8.8	57.9% / 55.8%	10.5% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	12.5 / 6.9	50.0% / 30.8%	23.8% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.6	61 / 56	53.2% / 47.8%	52.5% / 50.0%	48.7% / 26.0%	6.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.6%	68.9% / 23.2%	25.8 / 15.0

Los Angeles Chargers @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Nov 4

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis