Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – LA Chargers Team Total Under (22.5 -115)

NEW ENGLAND (+4.5) over LA Chargers

· Chargers WR Keenan Allen is averaging 0.50 EPA/target (5th), but he will be shut down as Bill Belichick specializes in taking away opponents’ top option and Justin Herbert will have nowhere else to go with the ball.

· Los Angeles doesn’t have another active wide receiver averaging more than 1 yard per route run with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer sidelined.

· The Chargers ground game also won’t be able to chip in for Herbert as New England’s rush defense is conceding a league-low 32.0% success rate.

· Patriots interior defender Christian Barmore ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from backup center Will Clapp, who has surrendered 17 pressures since taking over as starter in week 4 (2nd-most).

· Bailey Zappe is starting for the Patriots and he will take care of the ball better than Mac Jones, who has a league-high 5.8% PFF turnover-worthy play rate.

· I expect New England to lean on the rushing attack. The Patriots have a 42.1% rush success rate (8th) and the Chargers rush defense ranks 30th by our numbers.

· Los Angeles edge defender Joey Bosa is out. Edge defender Khalil Mack ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be contained by LT Trent Brown, who is the best on New England’s offensive line and did not concede a pressure last week.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 0.1 points, with a predicted total of 33.7 points, but the New England offense continues to make stupid mistakes at the wrong time. So, we’re going to try to keep the NE offense out of it by playing Atlanta’s Team Total Under.

1-Star Best Bet on LA Chargers Team Total Under 21.5 or more.