Game Analysis
JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
The defensive profiles in this matchup are quite similar. Jacksonville’s pass defense allows 4.3 yppp (1st) led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is 3rd in the league in passer rating allowed. Los Angeles allows 5.6 yppp (6th) led by cornerback Casey Hayward, surrendering a catch rate of just 50%. Jacksonville ranks 1st in sack rate and Los Angeles ranks 3rd. However, it’s been a different story for both defenses in the ground game with the Jaguars rush defense ranking 31st and the Chargers rush defense ranking 29th. I expect to see both offenses focus on running the football.
Leonard Fournette will return in this game after sitting out last game for violating team rules. Fournette is gaining 4.6 ypr this season, which ranks 2nd among rushers with at least 100 attempts. Melvin Gordon looks to build off his best game of the season where he ran for 132 yards on 14 attempts against New England before the bye week, but his 4.0 ypr for the season suggests that that game may have been an aberration. My ratings favor Jacksonville to cover and I’ll lean with the Jags.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.9%
43.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
9.3%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.6%
15.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.3%
33.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.3
29.6
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
33.1%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.5%
45.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
59.8%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
41.5%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
40.1%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.3
30.2
-
Run Ratio
38.1%
44.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.7
28.1
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.0
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.4%
36.3%
-
Sack Rate
4.6%
11.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.1%
41.2%
-
NYPP
6.5
4.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
35.8
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
18.5%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.4%
49.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.0%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
62.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.8%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.1%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
27.7
-
Run Ratio
54.0%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
27.6
-
Game Control
6.4
-6.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
3.0% / 3.6% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
27.3% / 40.5% |
31.8% / 18.9% |
2.9 / 3.8 |
56 / 69 |
42.9% / 44.2% |
39.3% / 44.9% |
27.7% / 47.8% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 53.6% |
31.6 / 31.8 |
2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% / 44.4% |
2.5% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.3 |
28.6% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 30.3% |
3.1 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
58.7% / 43.4% |
53.7% / 40.6% |
28.6% / 38.9% |
6.8 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.9% / 47.8% |
24.9 / 26.4 |
3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% / 34.6% |
4.8% / 19.2% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
34.6% / 56.0% |
34.6% / 20.0% |
4.0 / 7.6 |
68 / 51 |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 45.1% |
39.1% / 55.0% |
4.9 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.2% / 49.0% |
22.8 / 30.5 |
4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% / 46.9% |
5.0% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 7.5 |
38.5% / 47.7% |
46.2% / 20.5% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
53 / 76 |
39.5% / 47.3% |
41.5% / 47.4% |
68.3% / 56.1% |
7.5 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
24.5% / 57.9% |
22.2 / 22.1 |
5 |
@NYG |
27 – 22 W |
-2.4 |
36.4% / 34.1% |
0.0% / 12.2% |
2.3% / 2.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
31.3% / 72.0% |
21.9% / 12.0% |
3.9 / 6.1 |
76 / 66 |
34.0% / 54.0% |
34.2% / 48.5% |
36.2% / 46.3% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.1% / 37.9% |
29.0 / 28.2 |
6 |
@OAK |
17 – 16 W |
-3.2 |
45.9% / 51.6% |
2.7% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
7.1 / 5.3 |
21.9% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 31.8% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
69 / 53 |
34.0% / 52.5% |
34.8% / 50.9% |
33.6% / 35.4% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 41.5% |
24.7 / 31.7 |
7 |
DEN |
21 – 0 W |
11.1 |
34.5% / 35.0% |
10.3% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
19.2% / 21.1% |
42.3% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 3.6 |
55 / 59 |
28.6% / 32.6% |
27.3% / 30.5% |
44.6% / 13.5% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
47.3% / 32.2% |
29.8 / 23.2 |
8 |
@NE |
13 – 21 L |
-4.4 |
46.7% / 50.0% |
3.3% / 6.0% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.3 |
66.7% / 43.8% |
19.0% / 28.1% |
7.5 / 3.0 |
51 / 82 |
60.0% / 46.8% |
54.9% / 47.6% |
38.7% / 21.3% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 39.0% |
20.5 / 30.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |
3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% / 24.1% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.4 / 1.8 |
31.6% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 20.0% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
71 / 54 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
42.3% / 38.9% |
35.8% / 39.2% |
5.8 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 46.3% |
38.5 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
2.8% / 13.9% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
57.5% / 31.3% |
20.0% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 8.0 |
76 / 68 |
50.8% / 37.3% |
44.7% / 38.2% |
27.6% / 68.6% |
4.1 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
52.6% / 47.1% |
27.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
7.1% / 9.3% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 40.0% |
24.3% / 35.0% |
6.2 / 3.5 |
53 / 76 |
36.6% / 41.0% |
39.6% / 42.1% |
60.1% / 44.5% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
26.4 / 21.8 |
6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
30.8% / 20.6% |
6.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 58 |
42.0% / 65.9% |
39.4% / 53.4% |
54.2% / 35.5% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.4% / 58.6% |
25.3 / 30.5 |
7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% / 34.0% |
3.6% / 21.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 2.9 |
44.7% / 60.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
66 / 67 |
49.0% / 46.9% |
48.5% / 41.8% |
61.8% / 41.4% |
7.9 / 3.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 29.9% |
20.1 / 28.0 |
9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
41.5% / 15.8% |
12.2% / 21.1% |
3.7 / 1.6 |
79 / 39 |
44.1% / 29.6% |
48.1% / 23.1% |
32.8% / 52.7% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 48.7% |
21.1 / 20.2 |