Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers

The defensive profiles in this matchup are quite similar. Jacksonville’s pass defense allows 4.3 yppp (1st) led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is 3rd in the league in passer rating allowed. Los Angeles allows 5.6 yppp (6th) led by cornerback Casey Hayward, surrendering a catch rate of just 50%. Jacksonville ranks 1st in sack rate and Los Angeles ranks 3rd. However, it’s been a different story for both defenses in the ground game with the Jaguars rush defense ranking 31st and the Chargers rush defense ranking 29th. I expect to see both offenses focus on running the football.

Leonard Fournette will return in this game after sitting out last game for violating team rules. Fournette is gaining 4.6 ypr this season, which ranks 2nd among rushers with at least 100 attempts. Melvin Gordon looks to build off his best game of the season where he ran for 132 yards on 14 attempts against New England before the bye week, but his 4.0 ypr for the season suggests that that game may have been an aberration. My ratings favor Jacksonville to cover and I’ll lean with the Jags.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Jaguars

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 36.0
Succ Pass Plays 43.9% 43.3%
Sack Rate 3.9% 9.3%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 14.6% 15.5%
Big Pass Yards 33.3% 33.7%
NYPP 6.6 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 23.3 29.6
RB YPR 4.0 4.7
Stuff Rate 33.1% 22.8%
Succ Rush Plays 33.5% 45.9%
Big Rush Yards 59.8% 43.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.7

Game

All Snaps 60.3 65.6
Early Down Succ 41.5% 46.3%
Succ Rate 40.1% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 39.6% 39.3%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 30.2
Run Ratio 38.1% 44.9%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 28.1
Game Control -2.2 2.2

Points 18.8 19.0

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	21 – 24 L	-6.6	47.1% / 50.0%	2.9% / 12.5%	3.0% / 3.6%	5.4 / 5.7	27.3% / 40.5%	31.8% / 18.9%	2.9 / 3.8	56 / 69	42.9% / 44.2%	39.3% / 44.9%	27.7% / 47.8%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.4%	39.3% / 53.6%	31.6 / 31.8
2	MIA	17 – 19 L	2.0	62.5% / 44.4%	2.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.3	28.6% / 36.4%	50.0% / 30.3%	3.1 / 3.4	54 / 69	58.7% / 43.4%	53.7% / 40.6%	28.6% / 38.9%	6.8 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	25.9% / 47.8%	24.9 / 26.4
3	KC	10 – 24 L	-8.0	35.7% / 34.6%	4.8% / 19.2%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.7	34.6% / 56.0%	34.6% / 20.0%	4.0 / 7.6	68 / 51	34.5% / 50.0%	35.3% / 45.1%	39.1% / 55.0%	4.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 49.0%	22.8 / 30.5
4	PHI	24 – 26 L	-6.2	42.5% / 46.9%	5.0% / 3.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 7.5	38.5% / 47.7%	46.2% / 20.5%	4.5 / 4.9	53 / 76	39.5% / 47.3%	41.5% / 47.4%	68.3% / 56.1%	7.5 / 6.0	1.9% / 0.0%	24.5% / 57.9%	22.2 / 22.1
5	@NYG	27 – 22 W	-2.4	36.4% / 34.1%	0.0% / 12.2%	2.3% / 2.8%	5.9 / 4.5	31.3% / 72.0%	21.9% / 12.0%	3.9 / 6.1	76 / 66	34.0% / 54.0%	34.2% / 48.5%	36.2% / 46.3%	5.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	42.1% / 37.9%	29.0 / 28.2
6	@OAK	17 – 16 W	-3.2	45.9% / 51.6%	2.7% / 3.2%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.1 / 5.3	21.9% / 50.0%	18.8% / 31.8%	2.6 / 5.0	69 / 53	34.0% / 52.5%	34.8% / 50.9%	33.6% / 35.4%	5.0 / 5.2	1.4% / 0.0%	46.4% / 41.5%	24.7 / 31.7
7	DEN	21 – 0 W	11.1	34.5% / 35.0%	10.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	5.6 / 4.6	19.2% / 21.1%	42.3% / 21.1%	3.1 / 3.6	55 / 59	28.6% / 32.6%	27.3% / 30.5%	44.6% / 13.5%	4.4 / 4.3	0.0% / 3.4%	47.3% / 32.2%	29.8 / 23.2
8	@NE	13 – 21 L	-4.4	46.7% / 50.0%	3.3% / 6.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 6.3	66.7% / 43.8%	19.0% / 28.1%	7.5 / 3.0	51 / 82	60.0% / 46.8%	54.9% / 47.6%	38.7% / 21.3%	6.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	41.2% / 39.0%	20.5 / 30.5

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@HOU	30 – 7 W	11.9	52.4% / 34.8%	0.0% / 21.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.0 / 2.4	41.5% / 60.9%	17.1% / 17.4%	3.8 / 4.0	62 / 69	53.3% / 44.6%	45.2% / 43.5%	32.6% / 12.8%	4.5 / 2.9	0.0% / 4.3%	66.1% / 33.3%	38.2 / 26.5
2	TEN	16 – 37 L	-7.9	41.7% / 42.9%	5.6% / 3.6%	5.9% / 3.7%	5.9 / 7.5	64.0% / 68.4%	12.0% / 10.5%	4.0 / 4.8	61 / 66	52.1% / 64.0%	50.8% / 57.6%	23.5% / 41.6%	5.1 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	41.0% / 57.6%	23.4 / 39.9
3	BAL	44 – 7 W	23.9	54.5% / 24.1%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	7.4 / 1.8	31.6% / 56.0%	10.5% / 20.0%	4.4 / 5.4	71 / 54	48.1% / 42.9%	42.3% / 38.9%	35.8% / 39.2%	5.8 / 3.4	0.0% / 1.9%	53.5% / 46.3%	38.5 / 24.1
4	@NYJ	20 – 23 L	-2.3	30.6% / 44.4%	2.8% / 13.9%	2.9% / 3.2%	3.8 / 6.0	57.5% / 31.3%	20.0% / 43.8%	4.4 / 8.0	76 / 68	50.8% / 37.3%	44.7% / 38.2%	27.6% / 68.6%	4.1 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.5%	52.6% / 47.1%	27.0 / 29.5
5	@PIT	30 – 9 W	4.5	37.5% / 42.9%	12.5% / 3.6%	7.1% / 9.3%	5.1 / 5.4	40.5% / 40.0%	24.3% / 35.0%	6.2 / 3.5	53 / 76	36.6% / 41.0%	39.6% / 42.1%	60.1% / 44.5%	5.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	69.8% / 26.3%	26.4 / 21.8
6	LA	17 – 27 L	-5.1	37.5% / 37.5%	12.5% / 12.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.5	42.3% / 64.7%	30.8% / 20.6%	6.5 / 4.2	66 / 58	42.0% / 65.9%	39.4% / 53.4%	54.2% / 35.5%	5.9 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.7%	39.4% / 58.6%	25.3 / 30.5
7	@IND	27 – 0 W	18.7	53.6% / 34.0%	3.6% / 21.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.8 / 2.9	44.7% / 60.0%	21.1% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.8	66 / 67	49.0% / 46.9%	48.5% / 41.8%	61.8% / 41.4%	7.9 / 3.5	3.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 29.9%	20.1 / 28.0
9	CIN	23 – 7 W	7.2	55.3% / 30.0%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.0	41.5% / 15.8%	12.2% / 21.1%	3.7 / 1.6	79 / 39	44.1% / 29.6%	48.1% / 23.1%	32.8% / 52.7%	5.2 / 3.8	1.3% / 0.0%	51.9% / 48.7%	21.1 / 20.2

Los Angeles Chargers @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 12

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis