Game Analysis

Note: The Under was released on Monday when the total was 48 points. It has since fallen down out of Best Bet range.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (48) – MIAMI (-13.5) vs Las Vegas

· Miami’s defense got a major mid-season boost with Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey now playing opposite Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. Patrick Mahomes averaged just 5.4 yppp and Kansas City’s offense scored only two touchdowns in Germany versus the Dolphins as Ramsey is a massive upgrade on backup CB Eli Apple, who was being targeted every 4.7 cover snaps (3rd-worst).

· Ramsey and Howard on the field together also allows Kader Kohou to move inside, where he is much better as a nickelback – conceding only 0.92 yards per cover snap in the slot (8th).

· Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams is averaging 2.03 yards per route run (19th) and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has a 59% success rate (11th) but the duo will be shut down by Ramsey and Howard.

· The two consecutive wins for Las Vegas are disguising rookie Aidan O’Connell’s poor performance. O’Connell is averaging -0.10 EPA/play, which ranks 33rd of 38 qualifying quarterbacks this season.

· Raiders LG Dylan Parham ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency and LT Kolton Miller ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency, but one or both could be sidelined on Sunday. Miami’s defense has an 8.8% sack rate (6th-highest) and it will increase this week versus O’Connell.

· Josh Jacobs has 55 touches in the two games in which Antonio Pierce has been at the helm for Las Vegas, but the Dolphins have the league’s top run defense according to our numbers and they are conceding a league-low 32% pass success rate to running backs.

· Tua Tagovailoa has 1,421 yards on throws with at least 10 air yards (2nd) but the Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has made it imperative to not get beat deep this year and they have conceded the 3rd-fewest rate of explosive passes.

· Las Vegas CB Marcus Peters is allowing just 0.82 yards per cover snap (15th) and he will limit outside targets to WR Tyreek Hill, who is averaging 0.55 EPA/target (6th).

· Hill will also be limited on in-breaking routes as the Raiders are compact in the middle. Only 34% of dropbacks versus Las Vegas have been thrown over the middle (8th-fewest).

· Miami’s offense will be without both starting guards Robert Hunt and Isaiah Wynn, who have allowed just 8 pressures on 476 combined pass-blocking snaps. Backup guards Lester Cotton and Liam Eichenberg have surrendered 16 pressures on only 292 combined pass-blocking snaps.

· Our model favors the Dolphins by 11.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.1 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at 47).