Game Analysis

Lean – KANSAS CITY (-10) over Las Vegas

· The Chiefs started down 14-0 against the Raiders in week 12 but ultimately won handily by two touchdowns.

· Kansas City averaged 6.2 yppl in Las Vegas as edge rusher Maxx Crosby had only 1 pressure after being listed as doubtful heading into the game. Crosby has 13.5 sacks (5th) and will be much more of a handful this week coming off 10 days of rest and only playing 60% of the snaps in the blowout against the Chargers last Thursday night.

· Raiders LT Kolton Miller hasn’t suited up since he went down in the game versus the Chiefs. Miller ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency and should be back on the field this week.

· Las Vegas RG Greg Van Roten ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will limit DT Chris Jones, who has 56 pressures (4th).

· Aidan O’Connell will have solid protection but it’s no slam dunk for Raiders All-Pro WR Davante Adams and WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 58% success rate (12th). Kansas City CB L’Jarius Sneed is allowing only 0.76 yards per cover snap (10th) and will likely shadow Adams while Meyers is limited by CB Jaylen Watson, who is conceding 0.87 yards per cover snap (18th).

· Las Vegas is surrendering a 59% success rate to tight ends (26th) and Patrick Mahomes will know where to look. TE Travis Kelce is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (3rd) and he gained 13.0 yards per target in the last game against the Raiders.

· Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (7th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside versus nickelback Nate Hobbs, who is allowing 1.42 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst).

· Our model makes Kansas City an 10-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.2 points, and the situation favor the Chiefs, who apply to a 140-74-6 ATS situation.