Game Analysis

TAMPA BAY (pk) vs Kansas City

Lean – First Half Over (22.5)

· This game will take place in Tampa Bay after speculation earlier in the week it could be moved due to Hurricane Ian. However, I’m not sure it will be a normal home field advantage for the Buccaneers considering they moved practice to Miami for part of the week.

· People remember Kansas City’s Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers the last time these teams met on this field, but Patrick Mahomes had a patch work offensive line and never really had a chance facing a 55% pressure rate. Mahomes killed Tampa Bay’s blitzing defense earlier in the 2020 season with a healthy offensive line to the tune of 8.9 yppp and three touchdowns in week 12. Mahomes will have a fully healthy offensive line on Sunday night.

· The Buccaneers have the 6th-rated rush defense and Todd Bowles has shut down opposing RBs and WRs, but Tampa Bay’s weakness defensively this season has been defending tight ends allowing 6.6 yards per target which is around league average while all the other metrics are near the top of the NFL. Travis Kelce is averaging 2.21 yards per route run (2nd) and he will be a major part of the game plan.

· Buccaneers’ interior defender Vita Vea has 8 pressures (14th) but he will be contained by LG Joe Thuney, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Tampa Bay’s offense could be near full strength for the first game in 2022. Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans is back from suspension. WR Julio Jones (knee) is practicing after missing the last two weeks. Wide receiver Chris Godwin (hamstring) could even return as well.

· Tom Brady will also have starting LT Donovan Smith back in uniform which will be a relief after backups Brandon Walton and Josh Wells surrendered a 7% pressure rate. However, Brady is not completely off the hook in this matchup. Rookie LG Luke Goedeke has surrendered nine pressures and he will not survive on the interior against Kansas City DT Chris Jones, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model has the Buccaneers by 1.8 with a predicted total of 46.5 and Tom Brady is 38-8 ATS after a loss when not laying 7 points or more, including 4-0 ATS with the Bucs. That includes a 19-3 straight up record (21-2 ATS) when his team is favored by 2 or less to an underdog.