Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – SEATTLE (+2.5) over Kansas City

Kansas City hosts the Raiders in week 17 and Seattle host the Cardinals so the gravity of this game will be determined earlier in the day as the Chiefs basically wrap up home-field advantage with a Chargers loss and the Seahawks should be the 5-seed if the Vikings lose.

Russell Wilson’s unique playing style becomes easier to decipher for defenses as they gain familiarity. Wilson is throwing for 6.1 yards per pass play against divisional opponents in his career, 6.7 yards per pass play versus the rest of the NFC, and 7.3 yards per pass play playing AFC teams. The Chiefs haven’t played the Seahawks since 2014 and I expect Wilson to have a solid day passing in a favorable matchup if the weather isn’t terrible. Kansas City nickelback Kendall Fuller is likely going to be out on Sunday night, leaving the door open for Seattle’s best two receivers as Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin are both running more than half their routes from the slot this season. Eric Berry played 30 snaps last week but didn’t look 100% and his presence isn’t felt as much versus teams that don’t utilize tight ends. Furthermore, Chris Carson is averaging 3.32 yards per rush after contact (5th) and should be in line for a nice game versus a Chiefs rush defense ranked last by our numbers.

Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been clicking the last couple weeks since Kareem Hunt was released, but I think it’s more due to tough matchups against the Ravens and Chargers as well as injuries to Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill. Damien Williams has a higher rush success rate than Hunt this season and basically the same yards per route run. The Seahawks allow 7.1 yards per target to opposing running backs and the Chiefs would be wise to feature Williams as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Tyreek Hill should be back near 100% after the 10-day layoff, while it looks like Sammy Watkins is still questionable.

The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league and are 13-4-1 ATS in night games in Seattle during the Pete Carrol era. Seattle is also 11-2 ATS the last 8 years as a home underdog while going 9-4 straight up in those games with just 1 loss by more than 2 points. Our model favors Kansas City by 4.4 points using a normal home field advantage but I’m going to lean with the Seahawks based on their history of success getting points on this field, a 61-18-2 ATS home dog off a loss as a favorite angle, and an 89-170-9 ATS final road game situation that applies to Kansas City.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Seahawks

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.4 42.1
Succ Pass Plays 57.3% 47.0%
Sack Rate 4.8% 8.4%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 22.2% 21.7%
Big Pass Yards 48.6% 42.5%
NYPP 8.6 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 25.1 25.4
RB YPR 4.5 4.8
Stuff Rate 19.6% 17.3%
Succ Rush Plays 51.8% 57.6%
Big Rush Yards 47.5% 41.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.9

Game

All Snaps 62.6 67.5
Early Down Succ 55.5% 52.0%
Succ Rate 54.1% 51.7%
Big Yards Rate 49.1% 43.5%
Yards Per Play 6.9 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 27.6
Run Ratio 40.5% 37.7%
Starting Field Pos 30.4 25.3
Game Control 7.0 -7.0

Points 35.6 27.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LAC	38 – 28 W	9.6	46.4% / 55.8%	3.6% / 1.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	9.1 / 8.0	59.3% / 59.1%	25.9% / 18.2%	3.9 / 5.6	55 / 74	55.6% / 61.3%	52.7% / 56.8%	66.0% / 45.1%	6.6 / 7.3	0.0% / 1.4%	49.1% / 29.7%	29.1 / 20.1
2	@PIT	42 – 37 W	9.7	69.0% / 50.8%	3.4% / 1.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.1 / 7.2	44.4% / 38.5%	14.8% / 23.1%	4.8 / 2.5	56 / 74	63.8% / 51.7%	57.1% / 48.6%	56.1% / 35.2%	8.1 / 6.4	1.8% / 0.0%	48.2% / 17.6%	30.3 / 21.8
3	SF	38 – 27 W	13.8	55.0% / 44.1%	5.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 6.7	46.7% / 51.7%	16.7% / 24.1%	2.6 / 6.1	70 / 63	51.9% / 50.0%	51.4% / 47.6%	28.2% / 42.9%	5.5 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 46.0%	26.8 / 22.8
4	@DEN	27 – 23 W	-1.9	50.0% / 32.4%	2.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.6 / 6.1	66.7% / 72.7%	14.8% / 18.2%	5.3 / 7.2	73 / 59	59.3% / 53.3%	56.2% / 47.5%	48.8% / 59.7%	6.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 37.3%	30.6 / 24.2
5	JAC	30 – 14 W	14.4	87.0% / 73.7%	4.3% / 13.2%	9.1% / 12.1%	13.0 / 10.6	28.1% / 70.6%	25.0% / 5.9%	4.0 / 5.9	55 / 55	45.5% / 48.4%	52.7% / 72.7%	49.3% / 49.8%	7.7 / 9.1	0.0% / 1.8%	58.2% / 30.9%	21.3 / 28.3
6	@NE	40 – 43 L	-5.3	50.0% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	5.6% / 0.0%	9.8 / 8.8	70.6% / 64.1%	17.6% / 15.4%	5.5 / 4.5	53 / 76	59.5% / 60.0%	56.6% / 56.6%	55.4% / 44.9%	8.4 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.3%	32.1% / 51.3%	39.9 / 30.6
7	CIN	45 – 10 W	19.4	61.0% / 42.9%	4.9% / 5.7%	2.6% / 3.0%	8.6 / 5.0	51.7% / 47.4%	10.3% / 26.3%	6.8 / 3.4	70 / 54	54.4% / 47.6%	57.1% / 44.4%	52.5% / 42.3%	7.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	41.4% / 35.2%	24.0 / 26.6
8	DEN	30 – 23 W	4.5	50.0% / 41.0%	5.6% / 12.8%	2.9% / 2.9%	8.1 / 5.7	33.3% / 66.7%	16.7% / 13.3%	2.7 / 6.3	54 / 69	46.5% / 55.4%	44.4% / 52.2%	42.4% / 57.7%	6.3 / 6.0	0.0% / 1.4%	33.3% / 43.5%	38.0 / 23.3
9	@CLE	37 – 21 W	10.7	63.6% / 46.7%	6.1% / 4.4%	3.2% / 2.3%	10.9 / 6.4	58.3% / 56.0%	29.2% / 24.0%	5.8 / 4.1	57 / 70	61.7% / 51.9%	61.4% / 50.0%	62.1% / 26.0%	8.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 35.7%	33.3 / 21.8
10	ARI	26 – 14 W	8.0	54.5% / 36.4%	15.2% / 11.4%	0.0% / 5.1%	6.4 / 3.8	45.8% / 57.7%	33.3% / 7.7%	5.0 / 3.7	57 / 70	56.8% / 44.2%	50.9% / 44.3%	58.3% / 34.1%	5.8 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 37.1%	36.2 / 23.7
11	@LA	51 – 54 L	-4.5	59.2% / 46.3%	6.1% / 9.3%	6.5% / 0.0%	9.1 / 7.0	45.0% / 39.1%	5.0% / 21.7%	4.9 / 3.4	69 / 77	55.2% / 48.3%	55.1% / 44.2%	57.7% / 49.2%	7.9 / 5.9	2.9% / 2.6%	29.0% / 29.9%	27.5 / 26.0
13	@OAK	40 – 33 W	10.1	55.3% / 48.8%	0.0% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.6	48.5% / 67.9%	15.2% / 17.9%	5.4 / 6.1	71 / 69	57.7% / 52.6%	52.1% / 56.5%	52.5% / 49.8%	6.6 / 6.4	1.4% / 4.3%	46.5% / 40.6%	29.9 / 31.7
14	BAL	27 – 24 W	1.6	53.6% / 41.4%	5.4% / 10.3%	1.9% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.2	55.6% / 56.4%	25.9% / 10.3%	3.5 / 5.1	83 / 68	55.6% / 52.8%	54.2% / 50.0%	28.3% / 25.5%	5.3 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.5%	32.5% / 57.4%	30.2 / 29.8
15	LAC	28 – 29 L	8.7	47.2% / 48.8%	5.6% / 11.6%	0.0% / 5.3%	6.5 / 6.7	70.6% / 58.3%	23.5% / 16.7%	3.5 / 5.0	53 / 67	53.5% / 50.0%	54.7% / 52.2%	29.6% / 46.4%	5.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	32.1% / 35.8%	28.3 / 23.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	24 – 27 L	-1.9	35.9% / 57.5%	15.4% / 2.5%	6.1% / 7.7%	6.2 / 8.1	18.8% / 50.0%	25.0% / 21.9%	4.0 / 4.6	55 / 72	34.9% / 58.3%	30.9% / 54.2%	63.7% / 53.2%	5.6 / 6.5	1.8% / 0.0%	29.1% / 44.4%	27.4 / 26.6
2	@CHI	17 – 24 L	-7.4	43.6% / 52.8%	15.4% / 5.6%	3.0% / 5.9%	5.2 / 5.1	45.5% / 48.3%	13.6% / 13.8%	3.4 / 3.0	61 / 65	44.9% / 55.1%	44.3% / 50.8%	23.2% / 6.3%	4.5 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	36.1% / 44.6%	24.5 / 33.6
3	DAL	24 – 13 W	8.3	42.9% / 28.2%	7.1% / 12.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.5 / 3.5	30.0% / 52.6%	30.0% / 15.8%	2.9 / 8.7	68 / 58	34.0% / 39.5%	35.3% / 36.2%	34.8% / 51.2%	4.4 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.7%	58.8% / 32.8%	27.2 / 25.9
4	@ARI	20 – 17 W	2.0	48.1% / 42.9%	7.4% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.1	50.0% / 39.3%	23.5% / 35.7%	5.0 / 3.3	61 / 56	58.0% / 40.9%	49.2% / 41.1%	35.6% / 54.0%	5.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.8%	55.7% / 50.0%	35.5 / 26.4
5	LA	31 – 33 L	1.0	60.0% / 83.3%	13.3% / 4.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	12.2 / 13.0	53.1% / 40.6%	18.8% / 15.6%	5.9 / 4.9	47 / 56	44.2% / 56.9%	55.3% / 58.9%	66.5% / 49.1%	7.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	68.1% / 57.1%	26.6 / 33.7
6	@OAK	27 – 3 W	15.9	50.0% / 37.8%	4.2% / 16.2%	4.3% / 0.0%	8.9 / 2.9	46.2% / 52.6%	15.4% / 15.8%	4.0 / 4.2	63 / 56	45.7% / 46.5%	47.6% / 42.9%	46.9% / 31.9%	5.9 / 3.3	0.0% / 3.6%	61.9% / 33.9%	42.2 / 20.5
8	@DET	28 – 14 W	8.8	57.9% / 55.8%	10.5% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	12.5 / 6.9	50.0% / 30.8%	23.8% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.6	61 / 56	53.2% / 47.8%	52.5% / 50.0%	48.7% / 26.0%	6.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.6%	68.9% / 23.2%	25.8 / 15.0
9	LAC	17 – 25 L	-5.4	39.0% / 42.9%	9.8% / 7.1%	2.7% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.7	62.5% / 50.0%	21.9% / 31.8%	4.8 / 7.3	73 / 50	52.7% / 51.2%	49.3% / 46.0%	30.3% / 69.9%	4.9 / 7.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 44.0%	25.1 / 21.2
10	@LA	31 – 36 L	-0.6	48.3% / 53.7%	13.8% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.5	64.7% / 70.8%	14.7% / 8.3%	8.0 / 6.3	63 / 65	64.2% / 65.4%	57.1% / 60.0%	66.7% / 36.7%	6.6 / 7.0	1.6% / 0.0%	54.0% / 36.9%	24.1 / 30.2
11	GB	27 – 24 W	-4.5	44.1% / 45.7%	8.8% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 8.9	47.4% / 38.5%	7.9% / 15.4%	4.6 / 3.7	72 / 48	48.0% / 48.6%	45.8% / 43.8%	42.5% / 55.2%	5.3 / 7.5	1.4% / 0.0%	52.8% / 27.1%	22.3 / 30.4
12	@CAR	30 – 27 W	-1.6	59.4% / 66.7%	6.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.3%	10.1 / 8.5	25.8% / 59.3%	25.8% / 25.9%	2.5 / 8.1	63 / 57	44.2% / 68.1%	42.9% / 63.2%	60.2% / 57.6%	6.3 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 47.4%	22.4 / 29.3
13	SF	43 – 16 W	14.5	45.0% / 49.0%	15.0% / 6.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	8.2 / 7.9	60.0% / 26.1%	16.7% / 30.4%	5.6 / 2.9	50 / 72	59.0% / 40.0%	54.0% / 41.7%	74.4% / 50.7%	6.6 / 6.3	0.0% / 2.8%	60.0% / 31.9%	32.9 / 24.2
14	MIN	21 – 7 W	3.5	31.8% / 45.7%	9.1% / 5.7%	5.0% / 0.0%	2.7 / 5.7	56.8% / 45.5%	18.2% / 18.2%	4.9 / 3.5	66 / 57	56.0% / 55.8%	48.5% / 45.6%	36.6% / 39.4%	4.2 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.8%	66.7% / 38.6%	26.2 / 24.8
15	@SF	23 – 26 L	-2.6	44.1% / 53.1%	8.8% / 9.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 8.0	37.1% / 32.1%	20.0% / 17.9%	4.8 / 3.4	69 / 60	36.7% / 50.0%	40.6% / 43.3%	44.2% / 58.9%	5.6 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.7%	50.7% / 46.7%	25.8 / 20.7

Kansas City Chiefs @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 23

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis