Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY JETS (+9.5) over Kansas City

Note: NYJ was only a Strong Opinion at +9 or more and is now out of range. Lean with the Jets at +7.5 or more.

· We faded the Jets last week against New England, but the market has now gone too far in implying New York is 4.5 points worse than average.

· The Jets hovered around 2 points worse than average in the market last season when Zach Wilson was the starter, and they improved the roster in the offseason.

· New York’s defense was giving significant snaps to Lamarcus Joyner last year, who ranked 56th among 65 qualifying safeties in PFF coverage grade. Tony Adams is out but Adrain Amos will likely be better for the Jets at the safety position than Joyner.

· New York’s defense upgraded on DT Sheldon Rankins with Quinton Jefferson, who had nearly twice as many pressures last season as Rankins. Jefferson has a 14% pressure rate this year which is on par with his All-Pro teammate Quinnen Williams.

· Let’s be conservative and have those two upgrades on defense be worth a half-point. This means Wilson would need to be 3 points worse than he was last season for the current market rating to be correct. I’m open to the thought Wilson is slightly worse playing with less confidence after getting embarrassed the last two games but he is not 3 points worse. He’s also faced 3 good defenses in Buffalo, Dallas, and New England that are better than Kansas City’s defense.

· To sum it up, the Jets are very unlikely to be worse than 3 points below an average NFL team. Home field is worth 2 points in this game according to our numbers. Kansas City is among the league’s elite but can’t be favored by more than 8 here.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.9 points, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, and Kansas City applies to a 20-70-1 ATS big road favorite situation. Basically, teams with an average scoring margin of more than 10 points that are coming off a win of more than 10 points tend to suffer a letdown as road favorites.

New York Jets are a Strong Opinion at +9 or more.