Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (44.5) – Kansas City at NY GIANTS

Lean – Kansas City (-6)

• Russell Wilson completed 64% of his deep passes for 264 yards last week. It was the most yards to come from passes with 20+ air yards in the last decade. The Giants’ clear strength is throwing deep.
• The major weakness for New York’s offense so far has been left tackles Marcus Mbow and James Hudson, who have combined to surrender a 10% pressure rate. All-Pro LT Andrew Thomas seems like he may make his season debut on Sunday night, fixing this problem.
• Giants’ RT Jermaine Eluemunor ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and he will contain edge rusher George Karlaftis, who has 8 pressures (19th).
• Chiefs’ nickelback Chamarri Conner is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap in the slot, and he will struggle across from WR Wan’Dale Robinson, who is averaging 3.02 yards per slot route run (4th).
• Kansas City’s offense has been laboring without the top two wide receivers, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Patrick Mahomes has averaged a career-low 5.9 yppp but he’s making up for it with his legs. Mahomes averaged 20 rushing yards per game prior to this season, averaging 62 rushing yards per game.
• Worthy will likely be back for the Chiefs in some capacity this week and Kansas City should improve upon their 5.6 yppl (11th) against a bad Giants’ defense after facing a pair of good defensive teams in the Chargers and Eagles to start the season.
• Giants’ Pro Bowl nose tackle Dexter Lawrence will be limited by C Creed Humphrey, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Chiefs WR Marquise Brown is averaging 2.61 yards per route run in the slot (6th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from Andru Phillips, who is one of three qualifying nickelbacks surrendering more than 2 yards slot cover snap.
• Both these offenses are top-5 in Pass play Rate Over Expectation, and this pace is projected to be the 2nd-fastest of the week by our metrics.
• The only reason the Over isn’t a Best Bet is that Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo might’ve figured something out in regards to defending Wilson, who is averaging 3.9 yppp in his last 5 starts against Spagnuolo.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 6.0 with a predicted total of 47.9 points. KC is a Lean based on a 28-78-2 ATS situation that applies to the Giants.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less.