Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NEW ENGLAND (+9) over Kansas City

· Kansas City’s defense struggles to defend running backs, as the Chiefs surrender 0.02 EPA/rush (31st), and Bills RB James Cook had 83 receiving yards in the Chiefs’ loss last week. New England’s offense is targeting running backs on 23.9% of passes (3rd-most) and they will also hit Kansas City’s defense on the ground. New England’s running backs have combined for 59% of the touches by the offense this year.

· The Patriots yards per attempt against man is a league-low 65% of their yards per attempt against zone coverage and the Chiefs defense has the 8th-highest man coverage rate, but Bailey Zappe will get back man-beating WR Demario Douglas this week.

· Douglas is averaging 1.87 yards per route run in the slot (9th) and 7.4 yards after the catch (4th). Douglas is worth 0.6 points to New England’s offense by our numbers.

· Kansas City edge defender George Karlaftis has 57 pressures (12th) but he will be limited by RT Mike Onwenu, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Patriots’ rookie RG Sidy Sow will struggle across from interior defender Chris Jones, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Chiefs All-Pro TE Travis Kelce has a 63% success rate (3rd) but Bill Belichick is going to make someone else beat New England’s defense. The Chargers offense is equally focused on a single receiver and WR Keenan Allen’s 58 yards was his 2nd-lowest of the season against the Patriots in week 13.

· Patrick Mahomes will need a continued emergence from WR Rashee Rice, who had a season-high 69% route participation rate in week 14 and then outdid it last Sunday at 82%.

· Rice is gaining 2.77 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and Mahomes will find him on quick inside routes as New England’s defense has a 43.0% blitz rate (4th-highest).

· Our model makes Kansas City a 6.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.2 points.

The Patriots are a Strong Opinion at +8 or more.