Game Analysis

Lean – Kansas City (-4.5) over LAS VEGAS

Lean – Under (47.5)

Las Vegas has already matched their win total from last season with a surprising 3-0 start. However, they’ve achieved that against 3 worse than average team (including a dreadful Miami team) and with a significantly positive turnover variance (+5 in turnovers). The Raiders have averaged 5.2 yards per play (excluding their 8 kneel downs) and they’ve allowed 5.2 yppl while having a negative 2.2% success rate differential (just 40.2% on offense and 42.4% allowed). The Raiders have been 1.8 points per game worse than average based on predictive metrics and factoring in a schedule that’s been 3.6 points easier than average.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 3-0 with an offense that ranks 4^th in EPA per play and 5^th in success rate and a defense that’s been 6^th in EPA and 4^th in success. KC has faced an easy schedule too (aside from Denver) but they’ve been 7.8 points better than an average team based on their predictive metrics and schedule.

My ratings prior to the season would have favored Kansas City by 7.2 points in this game and now I have the Chiefs by 7.8 points (and 46.1 total points), as KC has outplayed their prior by more than the Raiders have.

The Raiders do apply to a 26-2 ATS early season unbeaten home team situation, which is the only thing keeping me from making the Chiefs a play. I’ll Lean with Kansas City and the Under, as I have some line value favoring the Under and don’t mind going under in Chiefs games (40-20-1 Under in all games since 2023). A 93-55-4 Division home dog under angle also applies.