Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-2.5 -120) vs Kansas City

Strong Opinion – WR Khalil Shakir (Buff) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-140 or better) or to 36.5

· I think it’s fair to call the first meeting between these teams a coin flip after a go-ahead 49-yard touchdown pass with just over a minute left from Patrick Mahomes to TE Travis Kelce which was then lateraled across the field to WR Kadarius Toney was called back due to a clear offside on Toney himself.

· Josh Allen was under pressure on 46.9% of his dropbacks against the Chiefs in week 14 (2nd-most of the season) because Kansas City’s defense can uniquely attack Buffalo’s offensive line.

· Buffalo’s right side of the offensive line combined to surrender 80 pressures while the left side allowed only 57 pressures. Chiefs edge defender George Karlaftis had 64 pressures (17th) and Chris Jones leads interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency. Karlaftis and Jones pass rush across from the right side of the offensive line on 70% of snaps the two had 12 pressures in the regular season against the Bills.

· Allen targeted tight ends on 23.9% of passes (7th-most) and TE Dalton Kincaid had a 57% success rate (6th). However, the rookie should be kept in check this week as Kansas City’s defense is allowing -0.02 EPA/target to tight ends (4th).

· Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo also specializes in containing opponents’ top wide receivers. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed allowed more than 40 yards only once in 2023. Bills WR Stefon Diggs forced 21 missed tackles (2nd) but he might not get the ball in his hands much lined up across from Sneed.

· Buffalo WR Gabe Davis is likely out again with a PCL sprain after averaging 0.39 EPA/target (20th) this season. WR Khalil Shakir might hold the keys to the Bills’ passing offense with Davis out and Diggs battling Sneed.

· Shakir’s 29 routes were 2nd-most on the team last week and his participation has increased to 76% of dropbacks with new Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, compared to 35% of dropbacks under original offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

· Buffalo set out to improve the ground game in the offseason and achieved the goal with a 45.8% rush success rate in 2023 (2nd). The Bills’ run game is even more menacing with Josh Allen involved and the quarterback has 35 carries in the last three games.

· Kansas City’s defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush allowed and Buffalo’s offense could implement an offense approximating week 15 against Dallas when they had a 75% run play rate.

· Meanwhile, the Chiefs have the highest pass rate adjusted for the situation in the NFL by our metrics and we know whose number Andy Reid is going to call.

· Patrick Mahomes should be kept clean enough to operate in his first road playoff game. Kansas City’s offensive line ranked 22nd in pass blocking efficiency with backup rookie Wanya Morris at left tackle in weeks 13 through 18 but the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked 9th in pass blocking efficiency in the 12 weeks starting left tackle Donovan Smith wasn’t sidelined and he was back on the field last week.

· Kansas City’s interior offensive line is responsible for only 35.9% of the pressures (2nd-fewest) and they will contain a revamped Bills interior defensive line with 11 sacks in 7 games with DaQuan Jones on the field which is the same amount they had in the 11 games without Jones.

· Buffalo DT Ed Oliver’s 10 pressures last week were the most from an interior defender in the playoffs since 2018. Steelers’ center Mason Cole surrendered 6 of Oliver’s pressures but the interior defender will be limited this week as Chiefs C Creed Humphrey ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Kansas City TE Travis Kelce is averaging 1.92 yards per route run (3rd) but he could struggle against a Bills defense conceding 51% success rate to tight ends (9th).

· Chiefs’ WR Rashee Rice is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (14th) and he would have a favorable matchup in the slot if Buffalo’s starting nickelback Taron Johnson is out with a concussion that he sustained versus the Steelers. However, I’m projecting Johnson to suit up despite the short week because this is the postseason and I doubt they’d force him to sit out. Johnson allowed just 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).

· Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas will be back on the field after missing the Pittsburgh game and he conceded only 0.90 yards per cover snap this year (15th). Buffalo CB Christian Benford is likely out, but his absence will not be a considerable loss. Beneford is allowing 7.4 yards per target and his backup Dane Jackson is conceding 6.4 yards per target.

· Our model favors the Bills by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.7 points. The situation does favor the Bills a bit, as they apply to an 88-45-5 ATS playoff angle.