Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-4) vs Kansas City

Strong Opinion – Noah Gray (KC) Over 10.5 (-110) Receiving Yards to -120

Strong Opinion – Nelson Agholor (Balt) Under 1.5 (+115) Receptions to -110

Strong Opinion – Patrick Mahomes (KC) Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards to -120

· The Ravens scored 24 unanswered points in the second half last week to knock off the Texans in the Divisional Round in large part due to a schematic change emphasizing getting the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands quicker.

· Jackson saw a career-high 75.0% blitz rate against Houston’s defense and averaged -0.27 EPA/play in the first half with a 3.36-second time to throw. In the second half Jackson averaged 0.72 EPA/play with a 2.02-second time to throw. The Texans had a 43% sack rate on blitzes in the first half and no sacks on Jackson in the second half.

· Jackson has looked more comfortable versus extra pass rushers in 2023 than in years past as he has just a 1.3% PFF turnover-worthy play rate against the blitz this season compared to 3.2% from 2020-2022.

· Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dialed up a 44.4% blitz rate versus Jackson in the last meeting and Lamar used his legs to run around the blitzes with 16 carries for 107 yards. Kansas City’s defense surrendered a 62.0% success rate in week 2 of 2021 to Baltimore’s offense. Ultimately, it was the worst game from Spagnuolo’s defense that entire season and I think he’ll look for a new plan on Sunday.

· Jackson is too fast to be chased down by linebackers, but we’ve seen him struggle twice before in the playoffs when a team puts seven defensive backs on the field. The Chargers had a 98% Dime Defense rate versus the Ravens in 2019 and the Titans had a 46% Dime Defense rate in the win against Baltimore in 2020.

· Josh Allen had 12 runs for 72 yards and a 100% rushing success rate against the Chiefs last week and I think Spagnuolo might load the box with the speedier defensive backs to shut down the quarterback ground game.

· Kansas City’s defense has a 45.2% press coverage rate (2nd-highest) and they could lean into this strength with more cornerbacks. The Chiefs will likely use a ton of two-high coverages behind the press to make sure they’re not asking too much of 3rd-string S Chamarri Conner with starting safety Mike Edwards likely sidelined.

· Conner’s 77 snaps led all defenders in the divisional round but he wasn’t really tested last week, as the Bills attempted only 4 passes more than 15 yards downfield in the Divisional Round. Kansas City’s defense calls two-high safeties on a league-high 63% of snaps.

· I expect Baltimore’s offense would counter the lighter personnel Cover 2 Press Man with large bodies and getting back TE Mark Andrews would aid that strategy. Andrews averaged 1.90 yards per route run (5th) before going out in mid-November. Ravens TE Isaiah Likely has 10 explosive plays since week 12 (4th) filling in for Andrews and we’ll probably see both on the field at the same time in this game.

· Buffalo’s offense had a 56% rush success rate with an extra offensive lineman last week and Baltimore’s offense now has the dudes for heavier personnel. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken was Georgia’s offensive coordinator from 2020-2022 and he had a 44% 12 Personnel Rate (4th-highest in FBS) with two tight ends on the field.

· Furthermore, Baltimore fullback Patrick Ricard had a season-high 37 snaps last week and we could see some 22 Personnel as well if the Chiefs don’t put as many linebackers on the field to prevent Jackson from getting to the outside. These bigger packages for the Ravens offense would result in a rotating cast for the wide receiver snaps from Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Nelson Agholor.

· Baltimore’s offense had 229 yards on the ground last week and it might continue in this game as Kansas City’s defense ranked 28th in EPA/rush allowed. The Ravens had 343 shotgun runs (2nd-most) and the Chiefs are surrendering 5.1 yards per rush when opponents are in the shotgun.

· The Chiefs’ interior offensive line was responsible for just 34.3% of the pressure this year (2nd-fewest) and they shut down Bills interior defenders Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, neither of whom had a pressure last week.

· Kansas City All-Pro LG Joe Thuney contained Oliver to his first 0-pressure game in two and a half seasons, but Thuney will be out for this game. Chiefs’ backup Nick Allegretti has conceded only 1 pressure in 52 pass blocking snaps but he might struggle versus interior defender Justin Madubuike, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Mahomes targets tight ends on 28.6% of passes (4th-most) and we could see Baltimore All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton in coverage versus TE Travis Kelce, who is averaging 0.40 EPA/target (2nd). However, the Ravens are surrendering 0.30 more EPA/target to tight ends than running backs and 0.16 more EPA/target to tight ends than wide receivers. We may see TE Noah Gray in more routes if Kelce is against Hamilton.

· The Chiefs’ two highest 13 Personnel rates of the season have come in the last two games versus Miami and Buffalo. Kansas City’s offense had a 64% success rate in 13 Personnel last week with Noah Gray on the field. Andy Reid will want to continue with the heavy personnel to coax the Ravens into using 3rd linebacker Malik Harrison in favor of having two safeties Kyle Hamilton and Geno Stone, whose 7 interceptions ranked 2nd in the NFL.

· Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (14th) and he could have a favorable matchup on the inside if Hamilton is covering Kelce. Hamilton is conceding 0.99 yards per cover snap in the slot fewer than Baltimore’s nickelback Arthur Maulet. The Ravens typically rotate Hamilton and Maulet as slot defenders. Hamilton had 15 coverage snaps at nickelback last week and Maulet had 13 coverage snaps in the slot.

· However, Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald might shadow Rice with Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey, who will likely be back on the field after missing the last two games with a calf strain. Humphrey conceded only 0.66 yards per cover snap this season (5th).

· The Ravens have an average point differential of +13.8 in 10 games versus playoff teams after beating the Texans last Saturday.

· However, Patrick Mahomes has shown the ability to step up against better competition as well. Mahomes leads the league with an average of 0.27 EPA/play in the regular season throughout his career but it rises to 0.31 EPA/play in the postseason, which works out to 1.7 points per game better – before taking into account that he’s facing better defenses in the postseason. Kansas City’s offense only punted once in Buffalo and Patrick Mahomes averaged 9.4 yppp.

· Mahomes is 8-3 outright as an underdog in his career but KC applies to an 8-32 ATS playoff road situation while Baltimore applies to a 33-12 ATS Conference Championship game situation

· The chances of rain have continued to increase as the week goes on and John Harbaugh will be praying for a downpour to limit Mahomes’ edge in the passing game. The conditions are projected to be 3.4 total points worse than an average NFL game by our numbers.

· Our model makes Baltimore a 3.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.7.