Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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BALTIMORE (-3.5) vs Kansas City

Kansas City barely squeaked out a win in Los Angeles last week on Harrison Butker’s 58-yard field goal in overtime. The Chargers blitzed Mahomes on just 2 of 48 dropbacks (4% blitz rate) and the standard pass rush is probably the best way to attack him. The 49ers nearly won the Super Bowl with a similar strategy, but the Ravens have the 3rd-highest blitz rate in the NFL, which should suit Mahomes well. Mahomes is averaging 8.1 yards per pass play with 19 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against the blitz since becoming the starter in 2018 and he’s only taken 8 sacks in 250 pass plays versus the blitz.

Baltimore’s rush defense ranks in the top 10 with safety Chuck Clark ranked 5th in run stop rate and I’m expecting the Chiefs to rely on the passing game on Monday night, especially if the Ravens blitz as much as they usually do.

Kansas City’s rush defense ranked 28th in 2019, but they were much better in the playoffs limiting the likes of Derrick Henry and San Francisco’s dangerous ground game. The Chiefs have allowed 5.2 ypr through two games this season but they’ve limited explosive run plays and actually rank 3rd in run defense in our metrics based on how their run defense projects to future overall defensive performance. Baltimore is once again calling more run plays than pass plays (one of only two teams to do so in 2019) and the Chiefs ability to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on the ground will go a long way to determining the result in this Monday night matchup.

Kansas City’s Chris Jones is on pace for his third-straight season finishing top 5 in total pressures among interior defenders and the Pro Bowler will likely make an impact in this game. Rookie RG Tyre Phillips has had a tough time replacing future Hall of Famer Marshall Yanda, as the third round pick ranks just 45th out of 56 qualifiers in pass blocking efficiency.

Kansas City rookie CB L’Jarius Sneed already has two interceptions this year and he allowed only four receptions on six targets for 37 yards last week despite facing difficult assignments. Sneed was in press coverage on 50% of his snaps against Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. This week Sneed will be challenged again while lining up across from Marquise Brown (10th in yards per route run).

Our model favors Baltimore by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.0 points and the Ravens apply to a 71-23-3 ATS Monday night home team situation that applied to Las Vegas last week. However, I like Kansas City’s match-up of Mahomes versus the blitz, which I feel negates the situation favoring the Ravens.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Ravens

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.5 35.5
Succ Pass Plays 54.2% 53.5%
Sack Rate 2.6% 8.4%
Int Rate 0.0% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 6.5% 22.6%
Big Pass Yards 16.6% 37.0%
NYPP 6.1 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 33.0
RB YPR 4.7 4.7
Stuff Rate 14.8% 11.4%
Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 61.4%
Big Rush Yards 51.9% 27.3%
Yards Per Rush 5.3 4.8

Game

All Snaps 68.5 68.5
Early Down Succ 50.5% 60.7%
Succ Rate 51.2% 57.6%
Big Yards Rate 30.4% 33.0%
Yards Per Play 5.7 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.9
Run Ratio 41.1% 46.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.8 22.0
Game Control 1.3 -1.3

Points 28.5 20.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	34 – 20 W	8.0	66.7% / 55.6%	3.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.2 / 6.7	47.1% / 59.1%	20.6% / 9.1%	4.9 / 5.4	67 / 58	56.6% / 59.6%	56.7% / 56.9%	19.0% / 33.3%	5.5 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 37.9%	37.2 / 22.3
2	@LAC	23 – 20 W	-5.4	41.7% / 51.4%	2.1% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.0 / 8.5	54.5% / 63.6%	9.1% / 13.6%	5.7 / 4.2	70 / 79	44.4% / 61.9%	45.7% / 58.2%	41.8% / 32.6%	5.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.4% / 55.7%	22.3 / 21.7

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLE	38 – 6 W	16.2	57.1% / 36.6%	7.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.6 / 4.1	40.0% / 48.1%	26.7% / 18.5%	3.6 / 5.1	58 / 68	47.8% / 48.1%	48.3% / 41.2%	50.4% / 49.3%	6.5 / 4.5	1.7% / 2.9%	51.7% / 39.7%	43.8 / 21.3
2	@HOU	33 – 16 W	8.9	46.4% / 55.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.3	45.9% / 35.3%	5.4% / 17.6%	6.2 / 3.0	65 / 57	48.9% / 54.3%	46.2% / 49.1%	58.0% / 28.0%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.8%	56.9% / 29.8%	27.8 / 23.8

Kansas City Chiefs @

Baltimore Ravens

Mon, Sep 28

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis