Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (-2.5) vs Jacksonville

Lean – Over (44)

· The Jaguars finished 2021 last in scoring averaging less than 15 points per game but there’s reason for some optimism this season namely a possible year 2 jump for Trevor Lawrence and bringing in Super Bowl Champion head coach Doug Pederson.

· Jacksonville’s offensive line was a minor bright spot for the team last season ranking 9th in pass blocking efficiency and should be solid again replacing guard Andrew Norwell with Pro Bowler Brandon Scherff, who did not concede a sack in 11 games last year.

· The Jaguars receiver room is beefed up with Christian Kirk (led Cardinals in yards per route run last season). 

· Jacksonville’s defense has finished in the bottom 5 of points allowed each of the last two seasons and they’ll likely be around there again in 2022. 

· Defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell comes over from Tampa Bay where they blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last year (41%), but the Jaguars really don’t have the safety talent to put a roof over those blitzes and I expect them to give up a fair number of explosive plays.

· There’s not a ton of buzz surrounding Washington’s offense this season, but they finished 23rd in scoring last season with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz is at least a minor upgrade at the QB position otherwise they wouldn’t have made the change. 

· The Commanders drafted Jahan Dotson in the first round and Curtis Samuel is healthy now after battling a groin injury during last year. Samuel gained 1.94 yards per route run in 2020 (19th).

· Washington is pretty much rolling the same defense out there again that allowed 25.5 points per game last year (25th). However, that number is skewed by one 56-point performance by the Cowboys when the Commanders were missing starters at every level of the field. Washington’s defense would’ve ranked 20th taking out the Dallas game which is where we have them going into 2022.

· Edge rusher Chase Young will be out to start the season and our numbers have him valued at 0.5 points.

· Our model favors the Commanders by 1.9 with a predicted total of 46.5.